Key Moments
- EUR/USD traded back above 1.1400 but stayed capped under the weekly high at 1.1435.
- Market participants reduced USD long positions ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls release.
- The broader EUR/USD downtrend remained intact while the pair traded below trendline resistance around 1.1555.
Euro Edges Higher as Dollar Strength Pauses
The Euro (EUR) advanced against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with EUR/USD moving above the 1.1400 handle as traders pared back long USD positions before the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls later in the day. The pair recovered from the prior session’s weakness and climbed back into the upper part of its recent range, though it continued to trade below the weekly peak at 1.1435.
Despite the latest uptick, EUR/USD remained aligned with its broader bearish pattern. The pair has recouped part of its recent declines this week, but it followed a 2% drop in June, which marked its weakest monthly showing since July of the previous year.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Expectations Support the Dollar
The US Dollar has stayed underpinned by firm US economic data and inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s target, encouraging investors to increase expectations for additional Fed rate hikes in the coming months. Against this backdrop, markets are focused on June’s Nonfarm Payrolls data for confirmation of those views.
Consensus forecasts point to a 110K rise in June employment, compared with a 172K increase in May, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.3%.
Technical Picture: Euro Still Facing Headwinds Below 1.1555
EUR/USD was last seen trading near 1.1407, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it remained beneath a significant cluster of resistance. The immediate ceiling is defined by horizontal resistance at 1.1435 – the current weekly high – and a descending trendline drawn from mid-April highs.
Momentum indicators showed only modest improvement. On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) hovered just above the neutral 50 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stabilized near the zero line. Taken together, these signals pointed more toward consolidation than to a clear bullish reversal.
For buyers to regain control, the pair would need to decisively breach the 1.1435 weekly top and then clear a former support band defined by the June 7 and 11 lows at 1.1505. A move above those levels would open the door to a retest of the descending trendline resistance, now located around 1.1555, which currently anchors the pair’s broader bearish structure.
Downside Levels: Supports and Fibonacci Targets
On the downside, Wednesday’s trough at 1.1360 is expected to offer initial support. Below that, attention turns to the key 1.1324 level, corresponding to the June 24 low. A confirmed break under 1.1324 would likely restore bearish momentum and shift focus to the zone between the 316.8% Fibonacci extension of the mid-June rebound at 1.1220 and the late May 2025 lows at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Performance Against Major Peers
The following table summarizes the intraday percentage changes of the US Dollar against major currencies, as well as cross-moves among those currencies. According to the data, the US Dollar showed its strongest relative performance against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.29% | -0.43% | -0.77% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.18% | -0.48% | |
| EUR | 0.29% | -0.13% | -0.50% | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.13% | -0.19% | |
| GBP | 0.43% | 0.13% | -0.32% | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.27% | -0.05% | |
| JPY | 0.77% | 0.50% | 0.32% | 0.69% | 0.71% | 0.57% | 0.28% | |
| CAD | 0.06% | -0.21% | -0.33% | -0.69% | 0.01% | -0.09% | -0.41% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.23% | -0.37% | -0.71% | -0.01% | -0.09% | -0.42% | |
| NZD | 0.18% | -0.13% | -0.27% | -0.57% | 0.09% | 0.09% | -0.32% | |
| CHF | 0.48% | 0.19% | 0.05% | -0.28% | 0.41% | 0.42% | 0.32% |
The heat map is read using the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar as the base currency on the left and moving across to the Japanese Yen column shows the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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