Key Moments
- EUR/USD trades near 1.1385 in early Asian hours, hovering close to this week’s low set on Wednesday.
- Price action remains capped below the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, with a bearish flag pattern still intact.
- Momentum indicators, including RSI near 42.5 and a slightly negative MACD, continue to point toward a bearish near-term bias.
EUR/USD Holds Near Weekly Low Ahead of NFP
The EUR/USD pair is modestly firmer in Thursday’s Asian session, with buyers nudging the exchange rate away from its recent trough but failing to generate strong upside follow-through. The pair is trading around 1.1385, keeping it close to the weekly low reached on Wednesday as market participants await the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.
The cautious tone reflects traders’ reluctance to take large directional positions before the labor market data, which is widely watched for its implications on US economic conditions and policy expectations.
Technical Setup: Bearish Flag Limits Recovery Potential
From a short-term technical standpoint, EUR/USD continues to trade with a downside bias while remaining below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour timeframe. The bounce from the lowest level since May 2025 has unfolded within an upward-sloping channel, forming what is identified as a bearish flag pattern.
Additional signals from momentum tools reinforce this negative view. The Relative Strength Index (14) is positioned near 42.5, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a slightly negative reading. Together, these point to waning bullish strength and suggest that the prevailing directional risk remains skewed to the downside.
Key Levels: Support and Resistance Structure
EUR/USD is currently trading just above the lower boundary of the ascending parallel channel, located at 1.1366. This level represents only tentative structural support, and a firm move below it would indicate potential for a deeper decline.
If bears succeed in breaking that lower boundary decisively, the pair could look toward the year-to-date low in the 1.1335-1.1330 area, which was established in June.
On the upside, the initial technical hurdle is seen at the upper edge of the same rising channel around 1.1451. Above that, more notable resistance is clustered at the 200-period EMA near 1.1522. Only a recovery through these levels would start to alleviate the broader bearish tone and shift the technical backdrop toward a more constructive stance for EUR/USD.
| Level | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1522 | Resistance | 200-period EMA on 4-hour chart |
| 1.1451 | Resistance | Upper boundary of rising channel |
| 1.1385 | Spot | Current trading area, near weekly low |
| 1.1366 | Support | Lower boundary of rising channel |
| 1.1335-1.1330 | Support | Year-to-date trough reached in June |
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