Key Moments
- EUR/USD breaks below the 1.1400 level during the Asian session, ending a three-day advance.
- Heightened demand for the US Dollar, driven by Iran-related risks and firm Fed rate expectations, weighs on the pair.
- Technical signals stay mixed, with EUR/USD trading under the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and key resistance near 1.1500.
Risk-Off Mood Lifts Dollar, Pressures Euro
The EUR/USD pair comes under renewed selling pressure in Asian trading on Tuesday, halting a three-session winning run and interrupting its rebound from the lowest level since May 2025 recorded last week. The move drags spot prices beneath the 1.1400 handle, leaving the pair exposed to additional downside.
Tensions tied to US-Iran hostilities and Israeli military action in Lebanon keep geopolitical risk premia elevated, supporting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD). This backdrop, together with firm expectations for further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve (Fed), helps the greenback recover after three consecutive days of losses. At the same time, fading expectations for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in 2026 add further weight to the Euro, amplifying the downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Technical Picture: Bearish Bias Persists Below 1.1500
From a technical standpoint, the pair continues to trade with a bearish tilt as long as it remains under both the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 1.1500 psychological barrier. While momentum indicators signal that selling pressure is easing, they do not yet confirm sufficient strength to challenge overhead resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 49.1 points to a neutral stance after rebounding from oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is slightly positive, with the MACD line above zero and showing a modestly constructive profile.
Against this backdrop, a renewed move lower that breaks the immediate support at 1.1380 is expected to draw buying interest around the 1.1335 region. This latter area is seen as a key pivot level; a clear break below 1.1335 would likely be interpreted as a fresh bearish signal and could open the door to more pronounced declines.
On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 1.1500 psychological level, followed by the 200-period EMA at 1.1538, which currently caps recovery attempts. EUR/USD would need to reclaim both of these levels to alleviate the prevailing bearish tone and tilt the technical outlook toward a more constructive setup.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) versus major currencies today. According to the data, the USD has been strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | 0.21% | 0.18% | 0.15% | 0.15% | 0.24% | 0.01% | 0.20% |
| EUR | -0.21% | — | -0.03% | -0.09% | -0.10% | 0.03% | -0.21% | -0.02% |
| GBP | -0.18% | 0.03% | — | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.08% | -0.16% | 0.00% |
| JPY | -0.15% | 0.09% | 0.04% | — | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.11% | 0.05% |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.10% | 0.04% | -0.01% | — | 0.08% | -0.13% | 0.04% |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.03% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.08% | — | -0.20% | -0.04% |
| NZD | -0.01% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.20% | — | 0.15% |
| CHF | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.00% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.04% | -0.15% | — |
The heat map is read by selecting the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar in the left column and moving across to the Japanese Yen cell shows the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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