USD/CAD Under Pressure But Bullish Structure Intact Above

Key Moments

USD/CAD is trading around 1.4180 after three consecutive daily declines from its 14-month peak.
The 14-day RSI stands at 75.3, pointing to overbought conditions and the risk of a corrective pullback.
Key levels include resistance at 1.4248 and support clustered around the nine-day EMA at 1.4155.

Technical Backdrop: Bullish Channel Holds Despite Recent Pullback

USD/CAD is lower for a third straight session, changing hands near 1.4180 during early European trading on Monday. The pair has been drifting away from its recent 14-month peak but continues to trade within an ascending channel on the daily chart, indicating that the broader upward bias remains in place.

Price action is still holding above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reinforcing the constructive near-term tone. The positioning above these short- and medium-term trend gauges points to persistent upside pressure, even as momentum indicators flash caution.

Momentum Signals: Overbought Conditions Emerge

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 75.3, which is consistent with overbought territory. This reading suggests that the latest upswing could be at risk of stalling and may give way to consolidation or a corrective phase, even if the broader trend backdrop remains supportive.

Upside Scenario: Retest of 14-Month High in Focus

On the topside, USD/CAD may attempt to rebound toward the 14-month high of 1.4248, which was recorded on June 24 and coincides with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A decisive move above this overlapping resistance zone would clear the way for additional gains, with scope for an extension toward 1.4400.

Downside Levels: EMA Supports and Channel Floor

Initial support is located at the nine-day EMA, now at 1.4155. A break beneath this short-term average would signal fading upside momentum and could place the pair under pressure to revisit the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4020.

If selling extends beyond the channel floor, attention would likely shift toward the 50-day EMA near 1.3924, which represents a deeper support area within the existing uptrend structure.