Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Signals Deeper Downside

Key Moments

Four-Year Cycle Signals More Bearish Pressure Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to slip under the $60,000 area, extending a decline that has already erased more than half of its value from the $126,199 high posted in October. Based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year rhythm – measured from cycle tops to subsequent bottoms – analysts see roughly four additional months before the current downtrend may find a floor. Under that framework, the remaining downside over this window could pull prices toward $33,000, corresponding to an approximate 75% setback from the record level.

In an interview with FXStreet, Michael Terpin, often described as the “Godfather of Crypto,” discussed the structure of Bitcoin’s recurring four-year cycle, expectations for the next upswing, and where the next bull market peak might land.

Structure of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Market Rhythm

Since its early years, Bitcoin’s price behavior has broadly aligned with a four-year cadence, with bull-market highs and bear-market lows typically separated by about four years. This pattern is closely linked to the Bitcoin Halving, which reduces miner rewards at roughly four-year intervals and anchors the cyclical structure.

Each successive cycle has seen both gains and subsequent declines shrink, pointing to a broad compression when viewed on a logarithmic scale. Within this framework, the latest bull phase is viewed as having topped out near $126,199 in October 2025. The current trading zone around $60,000 reflects a pullback exceeding 50% from that peak.

Cycle analysis suggests that a potential bottom could emerge around October 2026, implying there may be about four months left in the current bear phase. However, the more-than-50% retracement has already pressured several support areas on the monthly chart, indicating that the overarching uptrend is undergoing a corrective phase rather than resuming a strong, impulsive advance.

If buyers cannot maintain a June closing price above $60,000 or recapture lost territory in the coming months, the current bear leg could deepen, increasing the risk of a more intense correction.

Technical Landscape: Key Levels and Indicators

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen more than 15% so far in June and is in danger of closing the month below the $60,000 threshold. The asset retains a bearish near-term tone as it trades underneath the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $66,025 on the monthly timeframe.

On a logarithmic chart, Bitcoin is still aligned with a longer-term upward trajectory, but it is close to slipping below a key trendline drawn from the July 2013 and August 2015 lows, located near $59,000. Failure to recover momentum from here would open further downside toward the August 2024 monthly trough at $49,221, followed by the January 2022 monthly low at $33,111.

Momentum readings are consistent with this defensive setup. Buying interest is fading as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its signal line decline sharply, accompanied by expanding negative histograms. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41, indicating ongoing downward pressure, though it has not yet crossed into oversold territory.

On the upside, any meaningful recovery on the monthly chart would require a move back above the 50-period EMA at $66,025. A sustained break above that line would be needed to soften the prevailing bearish bias and potentially re-expose prior highs.

Terpin’s View on Cycle Bottoms, Drawdowns, and Timing

To delve further into the durability and potential evolution of Bitcoin’s four-year pattern, as well as where prices might ultimately head, FXStreet spoke with Michael Terpin, one of the earliest blockchain investors, who is also known as the Crypto Grandfather.

1. Bitcoin has historically bottomed around 12 months after each cycle peak, with drawdowns becoming progressively smaller. With BTC down over 50% from its October 2025 high, do you expect the bear market to bottom by October 2026, and will the trend of diminishing pullbacks continue?

We won’t have a 75% pullback from the high just because it happened in 2022. Each cycle has had diminishing returns and diminishing losses. In my book, Bitcoin Supercycle, I predicted a 60% to 70% drawdown from the high, with my best estimate at 66% at about $42,000. My current predicted range for the bottom is $39,000 – $55,000, with the likely capitulation in early October.

2. As the market approaches this potential cycle bottom, do you expect institutional investors to begin accumulating aggressively ahead of confirmation or wait for clearer signs that the bottom is in?

Investors trying to jump the gun on the bottom still get a good price, but there’s always more time to catch the bottom than the bubble top.

3. If a new bull cycle begins in 2027, what is your long-term price target for Bitcoin, and what key macro or structural drivers could support that move?

Technically, the new bull market starts at the end of the bear, and it lasts about three years – so the sixth cycle bubble should pop in late 2029. My target high is in a range, depending on macro factors. Worst case is $180,000, best case is $300,000 or a quick wick higher.

4. The four-year cycle is tied to the halving, but with block rewards dropping to 1.56 BTC in 2028, that supply shock matters less. Do you think this four-year rhythm stays relevant for a few more cycles, or is it losing its power?

There is a misconception that a low inflation rate of new coins makes it meaningless. In fact, the low inflation needs to be compared to demand. With only 225 new coins available per day, the record new demand anticipated during the next bull market could quickly overwhelm the daily new supply. This is a textbook case for supply shock.

In addition, I believe the four-year cycle could prevail in some form for at least the next 20 years. Once prices are over $1 million and amid even greater institutional dynamics, the four-year cycle may fade, but a Supercycle driven by a supply shock that lifts prices could occur first.