Euro Holds Above Lows as Dollar Gains on Hormuz Risks

Key Moments

EUR/USD trades in a tight range above the mid-1.1300s after hitting its lowest level since May 2025 on Thursday.
Heightened Strait of Hormuz risks bolster safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, while softer Fed hike expectations curb further USD gains.
Technical configuration remains bearish, with resistance at 1.1440 and the 100-period 4-hour SMA near 1.1514 capping the upside.

EUR/USD Steadies After Setting Fresh Multi-month Low

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to extend Thursday’s modest rebound and is confined to a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday. Despite the lack of follow-through buying, spot remains above the mid-1.1300s, just off the lowest level since May 2025 reached a day earlier, prompting caution among bearish traders considering fresh positions.

Hormuz Headlines Lift Safe-haven Dollar, Cap Euro Upside

Reports that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz have revived market concerns over the durability of an interim US-Iran peace arrangement. These developments are supporting demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, creating a notable headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

At the same time, the Dollar’s advance is constrained as market participants scale back expectations for additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve this year. Investors are now betting that inflation may have peaked last month, or is nearing its peak, in light of the recent pullback in Crude Oil prices. This reassessment of the Fed outlook limits further USD appreciation and, in turn, helps contain downside pressure on EUR/USD.

Technical Picture Still Favors Sellers

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has repeatedly failed to secure a sustained move above the 100-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. The pair’s inability to generate meaningful upside traction reinforces the bearish bias.

The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 42, indicating a gradual move out of oversold territory rather than signaling a robust bullish reversal. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has turned modestly positive, but this has not altered the broader near-term bearish structure.

Under these conditions, any significant recovery in EUR/USD is likely to be viewed as an opportunity to re-establish short positions, with the risk that such rallies could fade quickly.

Key Levels to Watch

On the upside, initial resistance is seen around the 1.1440 area. A break above this region could allow the pair to retest the 100-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, currently near 1.1514. Only a decisive move above this technical barrier would help alleviate the prevailing negative tone and pave the way for a more substantial corrective rebound. Absent such a move, the pair remains exposed to the risk of revisiting, and potentially setting, new lows.

US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies

The following table shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against major currencies today. According to the data, the USD has been strongest versus the Australian Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.02%	-0.05%	-0.10%	-0.06%	0.25%	0.14%	-0.08%
EUR	0.02%		-0.05%	-0.06%	-0.02%	0.27%	0.12%	-0.06%
GBP	0.05%	0.05%		0.00%	0.00%	0.32%	0.19%	-0.02%
JPY	0.10%	0.06%	0.00%		0.02%	0.33%	0.19%	-0.01%
CAD	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	-0.02%		0.31%	0.16%	-0.05%
AUD	-0.25%	-0.27%	-0.32%	-0.33%	-0.31%		-0.13%	-0.35%
NZD	-0.14%	-0.12%	-0.19%	-0.19%	-0.16%	0.13%		-0.20%
CHF	0.08%	0.06%	0.02%	0.00%	0.05%	0.35%	0.20%

How to Read the Currency Heat Map

The heat map reflects percentage changes between the main currencies listed. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar on the left and following the row across to the Japanese Yen cell shows the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).