Key Moments
- USD/IDR traded around 17,730 during Asian hours on Monday, marking a second straight day of declines.
- A US-Iran peace deal weakened safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and shifted interest rate expectations, with the CME FedWatch tool showing nearly a 47% probability of unchanged Fed rates in December.
- The Indonesian Rupiah gained support as markets anticipated Bank Indonesia would maintain its hawkish tightening stance after 75 basis points of rate hikes since May.
Rupiah Advances as Risk Sentiment Improves
USD/IDR continued to edge lower for a second consecutive session, trading around 17,730 in Asian hours on Monday. The pair came under pressure as the US Dollar weakened amid an improvement in risk appetite following reports of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.
The decline in the Greenback reflected a pullback in safe-haven demand as investors reassessed geopolitical risks and shifted toward higher-yielding assets, including emerging market currencies such as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR).
US-Iran Agreement Weakens the Dollar
The US-Iran deal, announced on Sunday, is scheduled to come into force this Friday. As part of the arrangement, US President Donald Trump stated that the United States will lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, enabling the reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz.
In a coordinated move, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy indicated they are prepared to remove sanctions on Iran, contingent on steps taken regarding its nuclear program.
The peace agreement reduced concerns over inflation and the trajectory of US interest rates, weighing on the US Dollar. Shifts in rate expectations were reflected in market pricing, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a nearly 47% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in December, compared with a 28% likelihood just one week earlier.
Bank Indonesia’s Hawkish Stance Supports IDR
The Indonesian Rupiah found additional backing from expectations that Bank Indonesia (BI) will preserve its hawkish tightening bias at its meeting on Thursday. Since May, the central bank has implemented a cumulative 75 basis points of rate hikes, which has helped underpin the currency.
Domestic political support has also contributed to sentiment. Last week, Deputy House Speaker Sufmi Dasco encouraged citizens to sell their US Dollars in an effort to stabilize the Rupiah after the currency had fallen to consecutive record lows.
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
Over the past seven days, the US Dollar has generally weakened against major currencies, with its largest decline registered versus the Indonesian Rupiah.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | IDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | -0.78% | -0.82% | -0.13% | 0.26% | -0.71% | -1.10% | -1.79% |
| EUR | 0.78% | — | -0.07% | 0.74% | 1.05% | 0.07% | -0.31% | -2.04% |
| GBP | 0.82% | 0.07% | — | 0.75% | 1.12% | 0.14% | -0.25% | 0.00% |
| JPY | 0.13% | -0.74% | -0.75% | — | 0.35% | -0.59% | -1.02% | -2.37% |
| CAD | -0.26% | -1.05% | -1.12% | -0.35% | — | -0.90% | -1.36% | -2.53% |
| AUD | 0.71% | -0.07% | -0.14% | 0.59% | 0.90% | — | -0.38% | -2.50% |
| NZD | 1.10% | 0.31% | 0.25% | 1.02% | 1.36% | 0.38% | — | -1.04% |
| IDR | 1.79% | 2.04% | 0.00% | 2.37% | 2.53% | 2.50% | 1.04% | — |
The table presents percentage changes between major currencies over the last seven days. The currency in the left column serves as the base, and the currency in the top row is the quote. For instance, using the US Dollar as the base and the Japanese Yen as the quote shows the percentage move in USD/JPY over the period.
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