Key Moments
- Bitcoin (BTC) gained 2% on Monday, touching $65,881 on Coinbase, its highest level since June 3.
- A peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, announced by Donald Trump and including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, coincided with a sharp drop in oil prices.
- Renewed institutional ETF inflows and a key Federal Reserve rate decision midweek are shaping near-term prospects for BTC.
Bitcoin Extends Recovery Toward $66,000
Bitcoin (BTC) advanced 2% on Monday, approaching the $66,000 mark after former U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a peace agreement with Iran that would reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. BTC traded as high as $65,881 on Coinbase, the strongest level since June 3, according to TradingView data.
The announcement immediately boosted risk assets. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, characterized the move as a “clear risk-on reaction.” “The deal removes a major geopolitical risk premium,” Adziima told Cointelegraph, citing broader stability narratives and pro-crypto sentiment under the Trump administration as supportive elements.
Market Context: From Sub-$60,000 Lows to ETF-Driven Support
Bitcoin has been retracing losses after briefly falling below $60,000 on June 6. That decline occurred alongside a broader risk-off wave, linked to AI-driven volatility in equities and stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data. The episode triggered $1.6 billion in crypto market liquidations, highlighting fragile sentiment earlier in the month.
The rebound has been underpinned by selective institutional demand. BlackRock’s IBIT led U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF activity with $85.85 million in net inflows on June 12, signaling renewed institutional participation. These inflows emerged after a record 13-session streak of outflows in early June, which had drained $4.4 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Even with the current upswing, Bitcoin still trades 48% below its October 2025 peak of over $126,000. Recent price action underscores the significance of the $60,000- $66,000 band as a key support and trading range for the market.
| Metric / Event | Value / Detail |
|---|---|
| Monday intraday high on Coinbase | $65,881 |
| Early June low | Below $60,000 (June 6) |
| Bitcoin drawdown from October 2025 high | 48% below >$126,000 |
| U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows (early June) | $4.4 billion across 13 sessions |
| IBIT net inflows (June 12) | $85.85 million |
Trump-Iran Agreement Shifts Geopolitical Backdrop
The peace arrangement between the U.S. and Iran, brokered by Trump and reportedly facilitated by Pakistan, includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for global oil flows. Trump announced the agreement in posts on Truth Social late Sunday, stating the removal of a U.S. naval blockade and the “immediate and permanent end” to hostilities.
Iran confirmed the deal, with its deputy foreign minister indicating on state television that implementation is scheduled for Friday. The prospect of resumed passage through the Strait sent crude prices sharply lower. WTI Crude fell 5% to $80 per barrel, its lowest level since March, while Brent Crude dropped 4.6% to $83.30.
| Asset | Move | Resulting Level |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | -5% | $80 per barrel |
| Brent Crude | -4.6% | $83.30 |
| Broader crypto market cap | +2% on Monday | Not specified |
Lower energy prices and a perceived reduction in geopolitical tensions are reinforcing a risk-on tone across digital assets. Beyond Bitcoin, altcoins also participated in the move. Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and Near Protocol (NEAR) posted double-digit percentage gains, while the overall crypto market capitalization rose 2% on Monday.
Macro Crosscurrents: Fed Decision Looms
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, which is set to release its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. This will be the first policy announcement under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has signaled a dovish inclination but is confronting inflation that has moved above 4%.
The CME Fed Watch tool indicates a 96.6% likelihood that the policy rate will be kept unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%. Any deviation toward a more hawkish stance could weigh on Bitcoin’s recent strength, given the asset’s sensitivity to macroeconomic signals and liquidity conditions.
| Fed-Related Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Implied probability of no rate change | 96.6% |
| Current target rate range | 3.5%-3.75% |
| Inflation level | Exceeding 4% |
Outlook: Key Levels and Sentiment Drivers
Market participants are closely watching whether Bitcoin can sustain levels above $65,000 to validate the durability of the current advance. The combination of easing geopolitical risk, resurgent ETF inflows, and a pullback in oil prices has created a more constructive backdrop for digital assets.
With the $60,000- $66,000 zone acting as a pivotal support and trading corridor, the response to the upcoming Fed decision and subsequent macro data will likely determine whether the latest rally evolves into a more extended move or faces renewed pressure.
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