Polish Zloty Under Pressure as Presidential Vetoes Mount

Key Moments

Growing Veto Count Raises Political Risk for PLN

Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose underscores that President Karol Nawrocki has quickly amassed a record number of vetoes, which is weighing on sentiment toward the Polish Zloty (PLN). The president has been blocking key government initiatives, including measures concerning crypto assets, tax rules, and healthcare, and this pattern is being interpreted as a structural political risk for the currency.

According to Ghose, the expectation is that Nawrocki will maintain this obstructive stance toward government reforms until the general elections scheduled for 2027. The uncertainty over whether the current ruling KO coalition can again secure a governing majority, alongside the possibility of a return to power by PiS, is seen as an additional source of pressure on the Zloty’s valuation.

Record Veto Pace Compared With Previous Presidency

Ghose highlights the scale and speed of the current president’s actions. Nawrocki has vetoed three more government bills in recent days, taking his total to 36 vetoes. This surpasses the previous record for presidential vetoes held by President Aleksander Kwasniewski, who had 35 vetoes during his tenure from 1995 to 2005.

The contrast lies in the time horizon: Nawrocki’s 36 vetoes have been issued over just 10 months, whereas Kwasniewski’s 35 vetoes were accumulated across two full 5-year terms. This accelerated pace underlines the extent of institutional friction currently facing the government’s legislative agenda.

Legislation Targeted by Recent Presidential Vetoes

The latest vetoes have fallen on three significant pieces of legislation. Ghose notes that one of the blocked bills is the Crypto-Asset Market Act, which the government intended to use to implement EU-level regulatory standards for the crypto asset industry.

As quoted in the report: “The vetoes were on the Crypto-Asset Market Act, which the government is using to try and bring EU-level regulation to the industry – the president alleges the government’s proposals won’t effectively regulate the business. Nawrocki also vetoed the Tax Ordinance and Fiscal Penal Code Act and the Publicly Funded Healthcare Services Act.”

These measures cover critical areas of economic and social policy, including the regulatory framework for digital assets, the tax system and fiscal penalties, and the operation of publicly funded healthcare. The repeated blocking of such legislation reinforces the perception of a prolonged policy stalemate.

Policy Obstruction and Implications for the Zloty

Ghose emphasizes that an obstructive posture from Nawrocki was anticipated: “In general, Nawrocki was always going to play an obstructive role in order to frustrate policymaking and reforms. He should be expected to continue vetoing government legislation until the autumn 2027 general elections. The ruling KO coalition has regained its footing somewhat and now leads in all polls, but there is a question of whether it would be able to form a majority again after the next election.”

This political backdrop leaves open the scenario that the opposition PiS could regain full control of the government and the presidency. As Ghose notes: “And this keeps the prospect of opposition PiS returning to full government and also controlling the presidency alive. And, this prospect acts as a drag on the zloty’s valuation.”

For investors in Polish assets, the analysis portrays a landscape in which persistent institutional conflict, extended into the period leading up to the 2027 elections, is likely to continue exerting pressure on the PLN through elevated political and policy uncertainty.