Mexican Peso Balanced Between Fundamentals and USMCA

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: June 12, 2026

Key Moments

Societe Generale strategists see Mexico maintaining relative stability even as conditions become more demanding.
Mexico’s inflation cooled to 3.94% in May, while Banxico has indicated its easing cycle is over, leading markets to factor in possible rate hikes.
Record Mexican exports to the U.S. of $50.7bn in April underscore USMCA strength, but future agreement terms remain uncertain.

Macro Backdrop: Stable but More Challenging

Societe Generale strategists observe that Mexico continues to appear resilient despite a more difficult environment.

“Mexico still looks steady, even if the playing field is getting a bit more challenging.”

Inflation and Monetary Policy Dynamics

According to the strategists, inflation in Mexico has eased, providing some relief on the macro front.

“Inflation has cooled to 3.94% in May, back below the 4% mark, but Banxico has already signalled the end of its easing cycle, prompting markets to price renewed hikes.”

Trade Strength and USMCA Exposure

External trade remains a key pillar supporting Mexico’s economic performance, driven largely by flows to the United States within the USMCA framework.

“Trade is clearly doing the heavy lifting, with exports to the US hitting a record $50.7bn in April, underlining Mexico’s strong position within the USMCA framework.”

At the same time, Societe Generale highlights that the policy and trade outlook is not without risk.

“That said, the outlook is clouded by uncertainty around the future of the USMCA, with the US leaning toward periodic reviews rather than a clean renewal.”