Key Moments
- ING’s Warren Patterson highlights that weaker Chinese crude imports and robust U.S. exports have recently reduced pressure on oil prices.
- China’s crude oil imports in May 2026 declined by 3.2m b/d year-on-year to 7.8m b/d, the lowest level since October 2017.
- Strategic reserve releases, including from the U.S. SPR, are expected to end by late July, after which oil market tightening is likely to accelerate.
China and the U.S. Temporarily Ease Oil Market Strains
ING’s Warren Patterson reports that a combination of subdued Chinese crude demand and elevated U.S. oil exports has, for now, helped alleviate tensions in global oil markets. He emphasizes that these factors have contributed to moderating price pressures since the onset of the conflict referenced in his analysis.
According to Patterson, “There are several factors which have helped to take some pressure off oil markets since the start of the war.”
Chinese Crude Imports Drop to Multi-Year Lows
A key development has been a marked drop in Chinese crude purchases. Patterson notes that “Crude oil imports in May 2026 fell 3.2m b/d year-on-year to 7.8m b/d – the weakest since October 2017.” This sharp decline in import volumes has reduced demand-side pressure in the physical market.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| China crude imports – May 2026 (year-on-year change) | -3.2m b/d |
| China crude imports – May 2026 level | 7.8m b/d |
| China imports – weakest level since | October 2017 |
U.S. Exports Draw Down Inventories
On the supply side, Patterson points to strong U.S. crude exports as another factor that has temporarily supported market balance. However, he underscores that these flows are not underpinned by lasting production gains.
As he states, “However, this is not sustainable, given that these stronger exports are coming from inventory rather than additional supply growth.”
Strategic Reserve Releases Near Their End
Patterson further notes that emergency stock releases have been instrumental in containing price spikes. “Releases from strategic reserves have also shielded the market from significantly higher prices,” he says, referring to coordinated drawdowns that have supplemented supply.
That support, however, appears close to expiring. “However, these are coming to an end: the US SPR release is set to conclude by the end of July, after which the pace of tightening in the oil market is likely to pick up.”
The analysis suggests that once U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases stop and inventory-driven exports lose momentum, the oil market could face a faster pace of tightening, especially if Chinese demand stabilizes or recovers from recent lows.
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