Wheat Futures Split as Soft Red Weakens and Hard Red Firms

Key Moments

Price Action Across Major Wheat Contracts

Wheat futures were trading mixed, with soft wheat contracts under pressure and hard red wheat slightly stronger. The broader wheat complex had extended its decline on Friday, although a few individual contracts managed to finish in positive territory.

Chicago soft red winter (SRW) futures ended Friday between 1 ¾ and 6 cents lower, with the July contract losing 30 ½ cents over the week. Preliminary open interest in Chicago wheat fell by 10,507 contracts, driven largely by reductions in July positions.

Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) futures showed a modest ½ cent gain in the July contract on Friday, while other listed months closed between ½ and 6 cents lower. July Kansas City wheat ended the week 29 cents weaker, and open interest in that market declined by 11,168 contracts.

Minneapolis spring wheat futures were between 1 ½ cents lower and 3 cents higher across most delivery months on Friday. The July Minneapolis contract slid 44 ¼ cents compared with the prior Friday. A $2.79 drop in crude oil added modest additional pressure to wheat prices.

Speculative Positioning: Commitment of Traders

Weekly Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC indicated a sharp shift in speculative positioning in Chicago wheat. Managed money in Chicago wheat futures and options posted the largest Tuesday-to-Tuesday bearish move on record (back to 2006), increasing their net short by 39,165 contracts to 57,871 contracts as of June 2.

In Kansas City wheat futures and options, speculative traders reduced their net long exposure by 13,393 contracts, leaving them net long 13,477 contracts as of Tuesday.

Export Sales and Fundamental Developments

According to USDA Export Sales data, U.S. new-crop wheat export sales commitments stood at 3.925 million metric tons. That total was 26.44% below commitments recorded in the same week a year earlier.

In overseas supply developments, Ukraine’s consultancy APK-Inform raised its wheat production estimate to 21.7 million metric tons, an increase of 1.8 million metric tons from its previous projection.

On the demand side, a South Korean buyer purchased 19,500 metric tons of U.S. wheat in a tender concluded late last week.

Closing and Current Wheat Futures Quotes

The table below summarizes Friday’s settlement prices alongside the most recent quoted moves for key wheat futures contracts:

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.