Key Moments
- U.S. natural gas futures have risen, supported by lower-than-expected storage builds and strengthening LNG export flows.
- ING highlights that gas flows to LNG export facilities have been recovering following seasonal maintenance, lending additional price support.
- Analysts at ING see the medium- to long-term Henry Hub outlook as less constructive than before the Iran war, with more associated gas output expected to keep the market well supplied through 2027.
Futures Supported by Storage Data and LNG Flows
ING reports that U.S. natural gas futures have strengthened in the latter part of this week, helped by the latest inventory figures and a rebound in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export flows after maintenance outages.
According to ING, the latest data release from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. natural gas storage rose by 95bcf last week. This increase was below market expectations for a 99bcf build and also fell short of the 5-year average increase of 101bcf, providing support to futures prices.
ING adds that “Gas flows to LNG export plants have been picking up following seasonal maintenance, supporting prices. In the medium- to long-term, the outlook for Henry Hub is less constructive than it was pre-Iran war.”
Medium- to Long-Term Henry Hub View Turns Less Positive
While short-term fundamentals have been price supportive, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey take a more cautious stance on the medium- to long-term Henry Hub trajectory compared with their view before the Iran war.
The analysts state that “Increased drilling activity on the oil side will lead to higher associated natural gas production, leaving the US natural gas market relatively better supplied through 2027.” This anticipated growth in associated gas is expected to weigh on Henry Hub pricing over time by reinforcing the supply cushion in the U.S. market.
Key Supply and Storage Metrics
| Indicator | Latest Value | Comparison Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly U.S. natural gas storage change | 95bcf increase | Below 99bcf expected |
| 5-year average weekly storage change | 101bcf increase | Above latest 95bcf increase |
| LNG export plant gas flows | Picking up | Following seasonal maintenance |
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