Key Moments
- J.P. Morgan raised its Tesla rating to “neutral” from “underweight” and increased its price target to $475 from $145.
- The brokerage sees Tesla’s earnings-per-share potentially rising to about $7.50 by 2030 from roughly $1.95 in 2026, with revenue projected to reach roughly $203 billion by 2030.
- Nearly half of Tesla’s expected revenue growth through 2030 is projected to come from services and new businesses linked to autonomy and robotics.
Brokerage Reassesses Tesla as a Long-Term Technology Platform
J.P. Morgan moved its recommendation on Tesla, Inc., led by Elon Musk, to “neutral” from “underweight” on Friday, arguing that the market is increasingly valuing the company based on its ambitions in autonomous driving and robotics rather than its near-term profit trajectory.
The brokerage’s more constructive stance coincides with Musk’s broader technology expansion efforts. Musk is also taking SpaceX public in what could become the largest IPO on record, with a valuation of roughly $1.7 trillion and an expected market debut on June 12.
Focus Shifts Beyond Core EV Operations
According to J.P. Morgan, investors are looking past the slowdown in Tesla’s main electric-vehicle business and concentrating on longer-term opportunities. These include robotaxis, humanoid robots, AI chips, and software-driven services that the brokerage believes could significantly alter Tesla’s earnings profile over the coming decade.
The analyst team, led by Rajat Gupta, who assumed coverage of Tesla last month, underscored what it views as Tesla’s exceptional degree of vertical integration across both hardware and software.
“We believe this aspect is still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood, but for the sheer starting-point advantage it brings.”
Upgraded Price Target and Earnings Outlook
In line with its revised view, J.P. Morgan raised its price objective for Tesla shares to $475 from $145.
The firm’s projections indicate that Tesla’s earnings-per-share could “potentially inflect” after 2028 and climb to about $7.50 by 2030, compared with roughly $1.95 in 2026.
Tesla reported adjusted first-quarter 2026 EPS of 41 cents.
In early premarket action on Friday, Tesla’s stock traded slightly lower.
Revenue Projections and Segment Contributions
J.P. Morgan expects Tesla’s total revenue to rise sharply from about $95 billion in 2025 to roughly $203 billion by 2030. The brokerage estimates that close to half of this expansion will be driven by services and newer business lines tied to autonomy and robotics.
| Metric | 2025 / 2026 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (approx.) | $95 billion (2025) | $203 billion |
| EPS (approx.) | $1.95 (2026) | $7.50 |
Multi-Market Opportunity and Risks
Gupta’s valuation framework spans five interconnected markets: automotive, energy storage, robotaxis, humanoid robots, and infrastructure licensing. Combined, these areas are estimated to represent a potential addressable market of about $3.9 trillion by 2035.
Despite the sizable opportunity, the brokerage cautioned that Tesla faces substantial execution challenges, particularly in securing regulatory approvals, proving safety, and scaling new technologies.
Analyst Sentiment Snapshot
Based on data compiled by LSEG, at least 24 analysts currently assign Tesla a “buy” or higher rating, 23 have a “hold” recommendation, and seven rate the stock “sell” or lower.
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