XRP, Stellar Fall as Risk-Off Mood Hits Crypto Flows

Key Moments

Risk-Off Mood Weighs on XRP and XLM

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) extended their declines on Thursday, marking a fourth straight session of losses as cross-border payment tokens came under persistent selling pressure. Retail participation has cooled notably, and for XRP, institutional sentiment has also weakened as exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows reversed.

Retail Positioning and ETF Flows Recede

Stellar’s recent upswing in retail interest – fueled by optimism around its Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) asset-tokenization partnership – has faded sharply. According to CoinGlass data, XLM futures open interest (OI) fell to $260.35 million on Thursday, down from a peak of $358.78 million on Monday. The pullback in OI points to a significant unwinding of bullish positions that had been built in anticipation of further gains.

XRP has seen a similar pattern. Its futures OI dropped to $2.59 billion on Thursday, retreating from a $2.97 billion high reached on Tuesday. In addition to softer derivatives positioning, XRP also came under institutional pressure as ETF products linked to the token registered $5.34 million in net outflows on Wednesday, breaking a run of zero outflows that had persisted since April 30.

XRP Technical Picture: Downtrend Intensifies

XRP was down about 4% at press time on Thursday, trading above $1.1500 as bearish sentiment strengthened. The token remains firmly capped by major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): the 50-day EMA at $1.3610, the 100-day EMA at $1.4367, and the 200-day EMA at $1.6337. This stacked resistance zone forms a multi-layered ceiling, reinforcing a downside bias.

On the daily chart, momentum indicators highlight the extent of the weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into oversold territory near 24, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned deeply in negative territory. Together, these readings indicate persistent selling pressure, even as occasional corrective rebounds occur.

On the downside, the February 6 low at $1.1179 is the nearest visible support level, acting as a buffer before the $1.00 psychological area. On the upside, initial resistance comes in at the 50-day EMA near $1.36, followed by the 100-day EMA around $1.44 and the 200-day EMA near $1.63, where any attempted recovery is likely to encounter renewed supply.

Stellar’s Trend Holds Above 200-Day EMA, But Momentum Cools

Stellar is trading above $0.2033 and continues to maintain a constructive short-term technical backdrop as it remains above the 200-day EMA, which is near $0.1975. The shorter-term 50- and 100-day EMAs, both clustered just above $0.1770, sit comfortably below the current spot price structure, underscoring that the broader trend is still comparatively improved.

However, momentum has started to fade. On the daily chart, the RSI has retreated from overbought territory to around 55, close to the neutral midline. At the same time, the MACD is moving toward its signal line, signaling a possible crossover as the bullish profile narrows. These developments suggest waning upside strength after the recent rally.

To the downside, initial support is located at the 200-day EMA around $0.1975. A decisive move below this level would indicate a deeper corrective phase, potentially opening the way for a return toward earlier consolidation areas. On the upside, if price rebounds from the 200-day EMA, XLM could revisit resistance at $0.2579, the level that limited the advance in late May.