Key Moments
- The global copper market recorded a sizeable surplus of nearly 400,000 tons in Q1 2026, driven by a sharp increase in refined production.
- Refined output rose strongly in China and the DR Congo, while global copper demand expanded by less than 1%.
- Commerzbank expects demand to accelerate and production growth to slow, supporting a year-end copper price target of USD 14,000 per ton.
Current Market Surplus Driven by Strong Refined Output
Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes that the global copper market posted a large surplus in the first quarter of 2026. The increase stemmed primarily from a sharp rise in refined copper production, with particularly strong contributions from China and the DR Congo. At the same time, global copper demand increased by less than 1%, failing to absorb the additional supply.
According to Lambrecht, data from the International Copper Study Group showed that the market surplus in the first quarter approached 400,000 tons, which was around three times the level recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
| Period | Market Balance Detail |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | Supply surplus of nearly 400,000 tons |
| Q1 2025 | Surplus roughly one-third of Q1 2026 level |
Outlook: Demand Recovery and Slower Supply Growth
Lambrecht expects the current configuration of strong supply growth and weak demand growth to shift over time. She anticipates stronger consumption alongside a deceleration in production growth, which should tighten the market balance and underpin prices.
“Yet in the first quarter, the global copper market was still in good shape. Thanks to a sharp rise in refined copper production, the International Copper Study Group reported a large supply surplus of nearly 400,000 tons – three times as high as in the first quarter of 2025.”
“However, we believe the trends on both the supply and demand sides will reverse. While demand momentum is expected to pick up, production growth should slow, which in turn should support copper prices in the medium term.”
Price Projection Toward Year-End
Against this backdrop of an expected tightening in supply-demand conditions, Commerzbank maintains a constructive view on prices. Lambrecht projects that copper will reach USD 14,000 per ton by the end of the year.
“By year-end, we expect a copper price of USD 14,000 per ton.”
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