Key Moments
- Soybean futures are trading from slightly higher to a penny lower after falling 4 1/4 to 12 cents on Wednesday.
- The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price moved down 9 1/4 cents to $11.37 3/4.
- Abiove raised its 2026 Brazilian soybean export and crush projections, with ending stocks now pegged at 8.25 MMT.
Futures Trade Mixed Following Wednesday Selloff
Soybean futures are showing modest changes on Thursday morning, ranging from fractional gains to a decline of up to 1 cent. This follows a weaker close on Wednesday, when most soybean contracts finished with losses between 4 1/4 cents and 12 cents.
Open interest contracted by 1,926 contracts in the latest session. July saw 7,521 contracts liquidated, while November open interest increased by 3,842 contracts.
The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price declined 9 1/4 cents to $11.37 3/4. Soybean meal futures settled lower by amounts ranging from 10 cents to $1.40 on the day, and soybean oil futures ended 32 to 78 points in the red.
Weakness in the crude oil market is contributing to downside pressure, with crude oil prices sliding $5.07 as reports indicate that negotiations between the US and Iran are reportedly approaching a conclusion.
USDA Export Sales Expectations
USDA is scheduled to release the latest export sales report this morning. Market participants are looking for soybean sales for 2025/26 in a range from 150,000 MT to 450,000 MT. New-crop soybean sales are projected between 0 and 200,000 MT.
For soybean meal, analyst expectations are clustered between 200,000 MT and 600,000 MT. Projections for soybean oil span from net reductions of 5,000 MT to net sales of 12,000 MT.
Brazilian Outlook and Chinese Import Activity
Abiove has lifted its projection for Brazil’s 2026 soybean exports to 114.1 MMT, an increase of 0.5 MMT from its prior estimate. The group now anticipates soybean crush at 62.5 MMT, up 0.3 MMT. Estimated soybean ending stocks have been raised to 8.25 MMT, an increase of 1.49 MMT.
Recent Chinese customs data showed that 3.33 MMT of soybeans were imported from the US in April. Total April soybean imports reached 8.48 MMT, including 4.75 MMT sourced from Brazil.
Current Futures and Cash Price Snapshot
| Contract / Market | Most Recent Close | Change at Close | Current Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26 Soybeans | $11.99 3/4 | down 9 3/4 cents | currently up 1/2 cent |
| Nearby Cash | $11.37 3/4 | down 9 1/4 cents | – |
| Aug 26 Soybeans | $11.99 1/4 | down 10 1/2 cents | currently up 1/4 cent |
| Nov 26 Soybeans | $11.93 1/2 | down 9 1/2 cents | currently down 1 1/4 cents |
| New Crop Cash | $11.32 | down 9 1/2 cents | – |
Disclosure
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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