Key Moments
- Henry Hub natural gas has stabilized around $2.80/MMBtu after earlier withdrawal-season volatility.
- RBC Capital Markets projects a Q2 trading range of $2.76-3.25/MMBtu before firmer prices emerge later in the year.
- The bank anticipates Henry Hub moving above $3.51/MMBtu later in 2026, with further upside risk into 2027 as structural balances tighten.
Current Market Conditions
The Henry Hub natural gas benchmark has steadied near $2.80/MMBtu, following a period of volatility during the withdrawal season. According to RBC Capital Markets, US natural gas prices have “settled into a lull – especially when compared to their global peers, with high LNG prices and landed natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.”
RBC’s Near-Term Price Range
RBC Capital Markets outlines a preferred near-term trading band for US natural gas in the second quarter. The bank favors a Q2 range of $2.76-3.25/MMBtu before anticipating a transition to firmer pricing as the year progresses.
As RBC states: “In the very near-term, we favor our Q2 low-to-middle scenario range ($2.76-3.25/MMBtu) before giving way to our mid-to-high annual scenario range later this year (at or above $3.51/MMBtu).”
| Period / Scenario | RBC Price View (Henry Hub) |
|---|---|
| Q2 near-term scenario | $2.76-3.25/MMBtu |
| Mid-to-high annual scenario later this year | At or above $3.51/MMBtu |
Medium-Term Structural Outlook
RBC projects that market fundamentals will become increasingly supportive over the next few years. The bank expects structural balances to tighten into 2027, which it believes will underpin stronger pricing.
RBC notes: “In 2027, we see the balance tightening structurally, leading to lower storage outcomes and higher prices, and eventually leading to a demand pull environment this decade.”
Implications for 2026 and Beyond
Based on its structural and price scenarios, RBC’s forecast indicates that Henry Hub prices are expected to move above $3.51/MMBtu later in 2026. The bank also highlights that upside risks could build into 2027 if domestic demand turns out to be stronger than anticipated.
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