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Key Moments

  • EUR/USD trades near 1.1653 in Asian hours, marking a fourth straight session of losses.
  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades 0.15% higher near 99.00, its highest level in two weeks.
  • A breakdown below 1.1655 confirms a Double Top pattern, signaling potential for further downside.

Dollar Strength Drives EUR/USD Lower

EUR/USD continues to retreat, extending its decline for a fourth consecutive trading session on Friday. During the Asian session, the pair is down 0.15%, hovering around 1.1653 as selling interest persists. The move reflects ongoing strength in the US Dollar (USD), which is advancing on the back of several supportive factors, including market reaction to developments involving the United States and China.

The pair has slid toward the 1.1655 region as the USD rally continues, aided by what markets perceive as constructive outcomes from the recent meeting between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday.

US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies

The article notes that the US Dollar has appreciated against a range of major currencies, with the most pronounced strength observed versus the New Zealand Dollar. A referenced heat map illustrates percentage changes between major currencies, where the base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar as the base and the Japanese Yen as the quote shows the percentage move in USD/JPY.

As of the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) – which measures the Greenback against a basket of six major peers – is up 0.15%, trading near 99.00. This level represents the highest reading in two weeks.

Macro Drivers: US-China Signals and Fed Expectations

On Thursday, remarks from both US President Trump and Chinese leader Xi suggested that trade relations between the two countries are expected to improve, with both sides emphasizing that the Strait of Hormuz should remain open. These comments have contributed to a more supportive environment for the USD.

In addition, firm market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will refrain from cutting interest rates this year are providing further backing for the Dollar. The prospect of stable policy from the Fed is seen as a positive factor for the currency.

Eurozone Policy Outlook

On the European side, a Reuters poll indicates that a majority of surveyed economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates at its June policy meeting. This anticipated move stands in contrast to the Fed outlook but has not prevented the EUR/USD pair from weakening in the near term.

EUR/USD Technical Picture: Bearish Bias Intact

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD is trading lower around 1.1653 in Asian dealings and is maintaining a bearish short-term profile. Spot prices remain below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is positioned at 1.1710. The pair has confirmed a breakdown of a Double Top formation after falling through the April 30 low at 1.1655, signaling scope for the current downtrend to continue.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 44 and tilting lower, suggesting that selling pressure remains dominant and has not yet run its course.

Technical LevelTypeComment
1.171020-day EMA / ResistanceReclaiming this level would be needed to alleviate immediate bearish pressure.
1.1800Upside TargetPotential area if a sustained recovery develops above the 20-day EMA.
1.1655Broken SupportApril 30 low; loss of this level confirms Double Top breakdown.
1.1589SupportApril 8 low, next downside area to watch.
1.1505SupportApril 6 low, further support if selling extends.

On the upside, the first notable resistance is the 20-day EMA around 1.1710. A decisive move back above this threshold would be required to ease the immediate downside bias and pave the way for a more durable rebound toward 1.1800. On the downside, the pair remains vulnerable to additional declines toward the April 8 low at 1.1589, followed by the April 6 trough at 1.1505.

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