Key Moments
- USD/CHF has been holding just above 0.7800 after rebounding from 0.7760, with bullish momentum building.
- Traders are focused on the outcome of U.S. President Trump’s meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
- A falling wedge pattern and bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart suggest potential upside if 0.7845 is cleared.
Fundamental Drivers: Politics, Safe-Haven Flows, and Yields
The US Dollar (USD) is trading broadly unchanged but remains slightly above 0.7800 against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Thursday, after recovering from lows near 0.7760. Market participants are largely on hold as they wait for developments from U.S. President Trump’s visit to China and his talks with President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Demand for the Greenback has been supported by safe-haven positioning amid an unresolved situation in Iran and by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are encouraging speculative interest in the USD.
Trump stated that it has been a fantastic day, with “positive and productive meetings,” noting that the issues addressed during a two-hour discussion with Xi are beneficial for both China and the United States. For his part, Xi commented that relations between the two countries are stable and that he had an in-depth exchange of views with Trump.
Macroeconomic Background: U.S. Inflation and Fed Expectations
On the data front, the Swiss economic calendar offers little this week. In contrast, earlier U.S. inflation figures showed that the impact of the energy shock in April was stronger than anticipated. These readings have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be compelled to raise interest rates in the second half of the year, lending additional support to U.S. yields and the Dollar.
Technical Outlook: Falling Wedge Signals Potential Upside
From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart depicts USD/CHF trading within a falling wedge formation, a configuration that often precedes a bullish resolution. A bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), combined with improving momentum readings, is reinforcing this constructive bias.
The RSI is currently hovering around 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are marginally positive. However, both indicators are reflecting a moderation in downside pressure rather than a clear, sustained bullish reversal at this stage.
To confirm a more durable bullish shift, buyers would need to push the pair above the confluence of the May 4 high and the upper boundary of the wedge near 0.7845. A breakout there would likely turn attention toward the April 12 and April 30 highs around 0.7930. On the downside, initial support is located at the May 8 low of 0.7760, followed by the lower edge of the wedge near 0.7740, which could challenge sellers ahead of the early March trough around 0.7670.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies This Week
The table below presents this week’s percentage changes in the US Dollar (USD) versus major currencies. According to these moves, the USD has been strongest against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.37% | 0.33% | 0.82% | 0.28% | -0.27% | 0.10% | 0.50% | |
| EUR | -0.37% | -0.05% | 0.50% | -0.11% | -0.65% | -0.31% | 0.12% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.05% | -0.62% | -0.25% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.82% | -0.50% | -0.04% | -0.61% | -1.10% | -0.73% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | -0.28% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.61% | -0.44% | -0.11% | 0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.65% | 0.62% | 1.10% | 0.44% | 0.38% | 0.78% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | 0.31% | 0.25% | 0.73% | 0.11% | -0.38% | 0.40% | |
| CHF | -0.50% | -0.12% | -0.17% | 0.29% | -0.22% | -0.78% | -0.40% |
The heat map reflects percentage moves of each currency in the left-hand column against those in the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar in the left column and moving across to the Japanese Yen cell shows the percentage change for USD (base) / JPY (quote).
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