Key Moments
- China’s 30-day moving average of LNG imports has climbed to its highest level since late February, according to shipping data cited by Bloomberg.
- Imports had previously plunged in April to their lowest level in eight years, with Kpler estimating an average of 3.5 million tons – a 30% year-on-year decline and the weakest since 2018.
- Benchmark trucked LNG prices have surged 70% since the start of March and now sit at their highest level since 2023, Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg showed.
Rebound From April’s Eight-Year Low
China’s liquefied natural gas imports are showing signs of recovery, with the 30-day moving average rising to its strongest reading since late February. Bloomberg reported the improvement, referencing shipping data that point to a gradual rebound in inbound volumes.
While the latest figures remain below the five-year average, they represent an improvement from April, when China’s LNG imports dropped to an eight-year low. Data provider Kpler indicated that, at the end of April, it expected China’s LNG imports to average 3.5 million tons for that period, a 30% decline from a year earlier and the lowest level since 2018.
Global Disruptions and Regional Demand Impact
The war in the Middle East has had a pronounced effect on global LNG supply. The conflict removed a quarter of global LNG capacity from the market, driving prices sharply higher and effectively excluding poorer buyers from the spot market.
These disruptions weighed heavily on Asia’s overall demand. According to figures from the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Asian LNG imports in March fell to their lowest level in seven years, down 4.3% year-on-year to 21.12 million tons.
Qatar Supply Shock and China’s Energy Mix Shift
China previously sourced almost one-third of its LNG imports from Qatar up until March. That flow was significantly disrupted when Qatar declared force majeure on LNG exports following Iranian strikes on its production and processing infrastructure.
The declaration created a notable shortfall in global LNG supply, one that other exporters have struggled to compensate for. In response, China increased reliance on alternative energy sources, including coal, wind, and solar, to help bridge the gap created by the reduced LNG inflows.
Summer Demand Expectations and Price Dynamics
Energy importers in China are now seeking to step up LNG purchases, anticipating stronger demand for air conditioning as temperatures rise in the summer months, Bloomberg reported. This renewed buying interest has put upward pressure on domestic pricing.
Argus Media data, cited by Bloomberg, show that the benchmark price for trucked LNG in China has soared 70% since the beginning of March and currently stands at its highest point since 2023.
This price surge has created an unusual dynamic: LNG available on the international spot market is now cheaper than domestic trucked LNG. That pricing advantage is encouraging importers to increase purchases from overseas suppliers.
China and Regional LNG Flows – Key Figures
| Metric | Detail | Source |
|---|---|---|
| China LNG import trend | 30-day moving average at highest level since late February | Bloomberg (shipping data) |
| April China LNG import level | Estimated 3.5 million tons, down 30% year-on-year, lowest since 2018 | Kpler |
| Asian LNG imports in March | 21.12 million tons, lowest in seven years, down 4.3% year-on-year | Gas Exporting Countries Forum |
| China’s prior LNG share from Qatar | Almost one-third of total LNG imports until March | Article data |
| Trucked LNG price move | Up 70% since start of March, highest since 2023 | Argus Media, cited by Bloomberg |
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