Key Moments
- EUR/HUF dropped below 360 for the first time in four years following stronger-than-expected March activity data.
- Societe Generale analysts see the downtrend extending with downside projections at 352/350 and interim resistance near 368.
- Daily MACD remains deeply negative, signaling a stretched move but no clear signs of a rebound yet.
Forint Rally Pressures EUR/HUF
Societe Generale analysts report that EUR/HUF has come under sustained pressure, with the pair falling sharply after failing to remain above its 200-day moving average in March and subsequently breaking below the low recorded in April. The move reflects pronounced forint strength and has driven the cross to levels last seen several years ago.
The analysts describe the current EUR/HUF move as stretched, noting that the MACD on the daily chart is “deeply negative.” Despite this, they do not yet see convincing indications that a recovery is imminent.
Macro Data Supports Stronger Forint
Recent domestic data releases have added momentum to the forint’s advance. According to the commentary,
“EUR/HUF fell below 360 for the first time in four years after strong March activity data. Industrial production surged 3.7% yoy against expectations of a decline, while retail sales rose 8.2% yoy. Inflation rose to 2.1% in April from 1.8% in March.”
Fiscal concerns have also entered the narrative. As highlighted in the article,
“PM-elect Magyar warned that new budget projections imply a 6.8% of GDP deficit this year versus a 3.9% official target and a 5% revised goal, prompting calls from MNB Governor Varga and Deputy Governor Kurali for fiscal discipline.”
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
From a technical perspective, Societe Generale’s analysts emphasize the continued downside momentum in EUR/HUF:
“EUR/HUF has experienced a steep decline after failure to establish beyond the 200-DMA in March. The downtrend has further extended after break below the low of April.”
They further note the current state of momentum indicators:
“Daily MACD is within deep negative territory highlighting a stretched down move however signals of a rebound are not yet visible.”
Looking ahead, the analysts outline specific technical targets and reference levels for the cross:
“Next objectives could be located at projections of 352/350. Should a short-term rebound develop, recent pivot high around 368 may serve as an interim resistance.”
| EUR/HUF Technical and Macro Highlights | Detail |
|---|---|
| Recent low breach | Break below April’s low after failure to hold above 200-day moving average in March |
| Key downside projections | 352/350 |
| Interim resistance level | Recent pivot high around 368 |
| Activity data surprise | Industrial production +3.7% yoy; retail sales +8.2% yoy |
| Inflation | 2.1% in April, up from 1.8% in March |
| Budget deficit projection | 6.8% of GDP vs 3.9% official target and 5% revised goal |
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
