Key Moments
- NZD/USD is trading around 0.5825 after failing to sustain an intraday move toward 0.5845.
- The US Dollar Index has risen for a third straight session, reaching its highest level since April 13.
- Markets are focused on upcoming US Q1 GDP and PCE inflation data for the next directional catalyst.
NZD/USD Hovering Near Recent Lows
The NZD/USD pair drew fresh selling interest after a limited advance during the Asian session that briefly carried it toward the 0.5845 area on Thursday. The pair then retreated, moving back toward the two-and-a-half week low reached the previous day. At last check, spot prices were trading close to 0.5825, effectively flat on the day, and remain vulnerable following this week’s pullback from the 0.5920-0.5925 horizontal resistance zone amid persistent US Dollar (USD) strength.
Stronger Dollar and Risk Caution Weigh on Kiwi
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, has gained for a third consecutive session and touched a new high since April 13, supported by several factors. Global risk appetite remains fragile amid stalled US-Iran peace efforts, underpinning demand for the safe-haven USD and pressuring NZD/USD.
The relatively hawkish tone from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday has added to the positive USD bias. This combination of geopolitical uncertainty and monetary policy repricing continues to cap upside attempts in the New Zealand Dollar.
US-Iran Stalemate Supports Safe-Haven Flows
US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the two-month conflict and stated that there will be no peace agreement with Iran unless it agrees to abandon its nuclear program. Trump also said that the naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place. Ongoing disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are helping to keep Crude Oil prices elevated, reinforcing inflation concerns and strengthening expectations for a hawkish Fed stance.
Fed Decision Shifts Rate Expectations
As anticipated, the Fed left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The decision, however, recorded the largest number of dissents since 1992, with three policymakers opposing the accommodative tone of the policy statement. In response, market participants significantly scaled back expectations for additional policy easing and are now assigning more than a 10% probability to a rate hike by year-end. This repricing has favored USD bulls and underpins the negative outlook for NZD/USD.
RBNZ Outlook Overshadowed by Technical and USD Factors
Expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) might maintain a cautious posture or even consider tightening policy to return inflation to the 2% midpoint have been overshadowed by the strength of the USD and global risk dynamics. The pair’s intraday failure near the technically important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – which has flipped from support to resistance – reinforces the view that the near-term bias for NZD/USD remains to the downside.
With technical signals and macro drivers both favoring the Greenback, market participants are now turning their attention to upcoming US data releases, specifically the Advance Q1 GDP report and the US PCE Price Index, for fresh direction.
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against major currencies today. According to the data, the US Dollar has been strongest versus the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | 0.15% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.05% |
| EUR | -0.15% | — | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.15% | -0.12% | -0.07% |
| GBP | -0.09% | 0.02% | — | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.11% | -0.09% | -0.05% |
| JPY | -0.06% | 0.07% | 0.04% | — | -0.07% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.04% |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.07% | — | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.05% |
| AUD | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.03% | — | 0.03% | 0.09% |
| NZD | -0.00% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.02% | -0.03% | — | 0.05% |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.05% | — |
The heat map reads with the base currency on the left column and the quote currency along the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar from the left and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen cell shows the percentage move in USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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