Gold Struggles Below $4600 Ahead of Fed Signals

Key Moments

Fed Decision in Focus as Gold Holds Near Recent Lows

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading on the back foot below the $4,600 level as the European session begins. Traders are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision later on Wednesday.

Importantly, market attention is shifting toward the post-meeting press conference. In particular, remarks from outgoing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched. These comments are expected to provide guidance on future policy direction. As a result, they could drive short-term US Dollar moves and influence Gold’s next direction.

Ahead of the event, uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks is also supporting the US Dollar. This, in turn, is keeping Gold near the three-week low reached on Tuesday. Over the weekend, optimism faded after US President Donald Trump cancelled his envoy’s planned trip to Pakistan. In addition, reports suggest that Iran’s latest proposal has not been well received, which has added further uncertainty to negotiations.

Geopolitical Tensions, Oil and Inflation Risks Limit Gold’s Upside

Meanwhile, shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply. This follows restrictions on maritime movement and a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. As a result, Oil prices remain elevated.

Higher Oil prices are now raising inflation concerns. In response, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may remain more cautious. Consequently, expectations of a more hawkish stance are limiting Gold’s upside potential.

Because of this environment, any short-term rebound in Gold is likely to face selling pressure. In most cases, rallies are struggling to hold momentum.

Technical Picture: Bears Watch Key Support Levels

From a technical perspective, Gold has lost momentum after breaking below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It also fell through the $4,670–$4,665 support zone, which has now turned into resistance.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40. This suggests that buying pressure remains weak. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned slightly positive. Therefore, a short-term corrective bounce is still possible.

On the upside, initial resistance sits at $4,668.04. Above that, the 200-period EMA near $4,703.69 is the next major barrier. On the downside, a break below $4,555 would likely open the door to further losses.

XAU/USD – Key Technical Levels

Event Risk: FOMC Press Conference

The FOMC Press Conference is expected to last about one hour. It includes two parts. First, the Federal Reserve Chair delivers a prepared statement. Then, a question-and-answer session follows.

Importantly, the Q&A section often drives volatility. As a result, markets can react quickly to unexpected comments. The Federal Reserve holds this press conference after each of its eight policy meetings per year.