Key Moments
- Benchmark Dutch TTF front-month gas rose 1.85 euros to 45.40 euros per megawatt hour, a 4.2% gain on the day.
- Colder weather projections and uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks pressured sentiment in the European gas market.
- The key EU gas benchmark had previously fallen about 39% from a peak of 74 euros per megawatt hour on March 19 amid optimism over potential peace discussions.
Price Action at the TTF Hub
European wholesale gas prices moved higher on Thursday, supported by shifting weather expectations and persistent geopolitical risks. The front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub, which serves as the primary European benchmark, increased by 1.85 euros to 45.40 euros per megawatt hour, representing a 4.2% rise on the session.
| Contract | Hub / Benchmark | Latest Price (€/MWh) | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Front-month gas | Dutch TTF | 45.40 | +1.85 euros (4.2%) |
Geopolitics and Weather Shape Sentiment
Market participants reacted to forecasts for colder weather as well as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tied to US-Iran relations. Expectations of lower temperatures fed concerns over potential increases in heating demand across Europe, supporting prices.
At the same time, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz added another layer of risk. Iran seized two vessels in the key shipping corridor, tightening its grip on the strategically important route. This development followed US President Donald Trump’s decision to indefinitely halt planned attacks, with no signs that peace negotiations would resume.
Recent Downtrend and Rebound in EU Benchmark
The latest move came after a sharp decline in the benchmark EU gas contract. Prices had dropped around 39% from a high of 74 euros per megawatt hour reached on March 19. That earlier slide was driven by optimism that peace talks could progress, easing some geopolitical risk premium in the market.
The renewed focus on colder weather and unresolved tensions around US-Iran peace efforts has now reversed part of that earlier weakness, lifting European wholesale gas prices from recent lows.
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