Key Moments
- Private label accounted for 29.1% of total food sales in the first quarter of 2026, flat versus the fourth quarter of 2025 and up 10 basis points year-over-year.
- Refrigerated dough, peanut butter, and snacking nuts and seeds saw notable private label share gains, while shelf-stable soup showed a sequential decline.
- Bank of America views Hershey, Mondelez, and Conagra as relatively better positioned, while Campbell Soup, General Mills, and Hormel Foods face higher private label risk.
Expanded Tracker Methodology and Market Scope
Bank of America released its quarterly private label tracker on Wednesday, offering an updated view of how store brands are performing across major packaged food categories and which manufacturers carry the greatest exposure.
The latest analysis incorporates broader channel coverage from Nielsen, now including data from Costco, Amazon P1, and Pet Specialty retailers. In addition, the comparison baseline has been reset from pre-COVID levels to 2023 levels, with the goal of more accurately tracking share shifts following several years of elevated inflation.
Overall Private Label Performance in Food
According to NielsenIQ data cited in the report, private label’s share of total food sales reached 29.1% in the first quarter of 2026. That figure was unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2025 and 10 basis points higher than in the first quarter of 2025.
Bank of America also highlighted pricing dynamics, noting that the price gap between total food and private label food narrowed by 5 basis points compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 Comparison | Q1 2025 Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private label share of total food sales | 29.1% | Flat vs. Q4 2025 | +10 bps vs. Q1 2025 |
| Price gap – total food vs. private label food | N/A | Contracted 5 bps vs. Q4 2025 | N/A |
Category-Level Trends and Company Implications
Refrigerated Dough
Private label gained ground in refrigerated dough, with share rising 210 basis points sequentially. Bank of America described this pattern as typical for the first quarter, following a period of stronger branded performance in the fourth quarter during peak baking season. Within this space, General Mills (NYSE:GIS) was identified as the key branded competitor.
Peanut Butter
In peanut butter, private label strengthened its position both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The report noted that Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL) had previously flagged volume softness for its Skippy brand during its first quarter 2026 earnings call in January.
Snacking Nuts and Seeds
Private label maintained a leadership position in snacking nuts and seeds, with share rising 90 basis points sequentially to roughly 44%. Bank of America indicated that these gains primarily came at the expense of smaller manufacturers and The Wonderful Co.
Shelf-Stable Soup
In shelf-stable soup, private label share fell 60 basis points sequentially, with the pullback driven by ready-to-serve offerings. Despite that near-term decline, the report pointed out that Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) has ceded share to private label on a year-over-year basis since the fourth quarter of 2024, with private label picking up share “on nearly a one-for-one basis.” General Mills has also experienced share losses to private label in this category since the second quarter of 2025.
Relative Positioning of Key Packaged Food Companies
Assessing category exposure, portfolio mix, and pricing differentials, Bank of America concluded that Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), and Conagra (NYSE:CAG) appear to be better positioned relative to private label pressure.
By contrast, Campbell Soup, General Mills, and Hormel Foods were characterized as facing greater risk from private label competition, based on the firm’s evaluation of weighted private label exposure, category share dynamics, and pricing gaps.
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