Russian Oil Output Hit by Drone Strikes, Exports Disrupted

Key Moments

Production Disruption in April

Russia was compelled to scale back crude oil production in April after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on key ports and refineries and a halt in supplies through the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, according to five sources and Reuters calculations.

These sources, who requested anonymity, indicated that Russian output in April may have fallen by roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day compared with average production levels in the first months of the year. They said this could represent the steepest monthly drop in Russian output in six years, dating back to the COVID pandemic period.

Oil production, largely sourced from fields in the Western Siberian basin, is central to Russia’s $3 trillion economy. Any sustained reduction in volumes directly affects revenue for what is described as the world’s second-largest oil exporter.

Price Support Amid Supply Shock

The potential revenue shortfall from lower volumes may be partly offset by the impact of the Iran war, which has created a supply and production shock in the global oil market. Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said last Thursday that elevated prices would help narrow the country’s budget deficit.

Operational and Security Challenges

In recent weeks, Ukraine has launched multiple drone attacks on some of Russia’s largest western oil ports, igniting large fires and targeting refining infrastructure.

One source told Reuters: “Against the backdrop of ongoing attacks on Russia’s ports and refineries, it will be difficult to place oil without cutting output, especially with upcoming spring maintenance shutdowns.”

Russia has classified detailed oil production statistics since shortly after the conflict in Ukraine began in 2022, citing national security reasons. The country’s energy ministry declined to comment.

Long-Term Production Context

Russian oil output reached its peak in the late 1980s, then collapsed after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union amid a lack of investment. Production later recovered through the 2000s and 2010s, hitting a post-Soviet high in 2019, just before the COVID pandemic.

Based on the sources and Reuters calculations, the April decline in production corresponds to a reduction of between 500,000 barrels per day and 600,000 barrels per day compared with Russian output levels in late 2025. The article notes that a single monthly drop does not automatically imply that full-year production will be lower.

Ukrainian Strikes on Energy Infrastructure

Ukraine has intensified attacks on critical Russian energy assets, which generate around one quarter of Russia’s budget revenue, as part of an effort to weaken the Russian war economy.

Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that Russia shot down 11,211 Ukrainian drones in March, almost twice the number recorded in February.

The drone strikes have repeatedly targeted the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk and the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which serve as major western export hubs for Russian oil. Refineries have also been struck, and over the weekend Ukraine attacked the Baltic Sea port of Vysotsk.

Pipeline and Export Constraints

Export pressures have been exacerbated by the continued shutdown of flows through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukrainian territory. Those flows have remained halted following attacks on the pipeline’s infrastructure at the end of January.

Revisions to Supply Outlook

The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises industrialized nations, reduced its forecast for Russia’s oil supply by 120,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year. The IEA cited persistent strikes on Russian refineries and port facilities.

The agency said Russia may find it difficult in the near term to raise production above the levels seen early in the first quarter, given the extent of damage to port and energy infrastructure.

Recent Production Estimates

According to the IEA, Russia’s crude output rose in March to 8.96 million barrels per day from 8.67 million barrels per day in February.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported that Russia’s oil production was stable in March at 9.167 million barrels per day.

Key Production and Supply Metrics