NZD/USD Rises as Trade Data and PBoC Support Offset USD

Key Moments

NZD/USD Recovers as New Zealand Posts March Trade Surplus

NZD/USD pared earlier declines and was last seen around 0.5880 during Monday’s Asian session, as improved trade data from New Zealand helped the pair rebound. The latest figures showed a month-over-month trade surplus of NZD 698 million in March, a sharp turnaround from the NZD 365 million deficit reported in February.

On a yearly basis, however, the trade balance remained in deficit. The annual trade shortfall stood at NZD 3.2 billion in March, compared with NZD 3.1 billion a month earlier.

Trade Data Breakdown

New Zealand’s external sector data highlighted both robust export performance and solid import demand. Exports expanded 7.3% year-on-year to reach a record high of NZD 7.94 billion in March 2026. Imports also advanced, rising 9.6% to NZD 7.25 billion.

Chinese Policy Steady as PBOC Holds Loan Prime Rates

In one of New Zealand’s key trading partners, China, the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark Loan Prime Rates unchanged on Monday. The central bank maintained the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%.

The decision to leave borrowing costs steady came as the NZD/USD pair attempted to stabilize, with regional monetary policy signals adding context to the kiwi’s performance.

US Dollar Supported by Fed Expectations and Geopolitical Risk

Despite the kiwi’s intraday recovery, NZD/USD remained under pressure from a stronger US Dollar. The greenback found support as markets continued to price a higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve amid ongoing inflation concerns and elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Tensions between the United States and Iran contributed to safe-haven demand for the USD. Iranian state media, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), reported that Tehran has refused to resume talks with US officials, citing “unrealistic expectations,” among other issues.

Strait of Hormuz Developments and US-Iran Contacts

The geopolitical backdrop remained tense around the Strait of Hormuz. According to the article, Iran has kept the waterway blocked since US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Authorities reportedly signaled a brief reopening on Friday but then reversed the decision on Saturday after US President Donald Trump declined to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.

US President Trump stated on Truth Social that US representatives would travel to Islamabad for talks with Iran on Monday. At the same time, he criticized Iran’s decision to re-close the Strait of Hormuz and repeated threats to hit Iranian infrastructure, specifically mentioning power plants and bridges.

Details on the Latest Trade Balance Release

Additional information from Statistics New Zealand provided context for the annual trade figures. The trade balance in New Zealand dollar terms (year-on-year) is defined as the difference between the value of exports and imports over a year. A positive reading indicates that exports exceed imports, while a negative number signals the opposite, with a positive balance typically seen as a sign of strong competitiveness.