Silver Drifts Lower as Market Awaits Iran Hormuz Response

Key Moments

XAG/USD trades about 0.7% lower near $72.50 in late Asian dealings, moving in a tight consolidation band.
Traders monitor Iran’s reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump’s Tuesday 8:00 PM ET ultimatum on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Technical picture remains mildly bearish with prices below the 20-day EMA and the RSI at 43, signaling continued selling pressure.

Geopolitics Keep Silver in Tight Range

Silver (XAG/USD) is weaker in late Asian trading on Monday, slipping around 0.7% to hover near $72.50. Despite the decline, price action remains confined to a relatively narrow band as market participants await clarity on geopolitical developments.

The metal is trading sideways while investors focus on Iran’s anticipated response to a deadline set by United States (US) President Donald Trump concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Ultimatum and Iran’s Position

Over the weekend, President Trump threatened to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8:00 PM Eastern time (ET).

Recent comments from Iran’s foreign ministry suggest the country does not intend to reopen the vital waterway and is prepared to answer any attack in kind. Iran will reciprocate attacks on its infrastructure and target similar infrastructure owned by the US or related, a spokesperson from Iran’s foreign ministry said.

Ceasefire Reports and Implications for Silver

At the same time, some reports from Axios, cited by Bloomberg, indicate that the US and Iran are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire. If agreed, this could mark a significant step toward easing tensions in the Middle East conflict and would likely be supportive for Silver prices.

In theory, signs of geopolitical de-escalation tend to reduce demand for precious metals in their safe-haven role. However, projections of rising global inflation linked to the ongoing conflict, along with more hawkish guidance from central banks, have undermined the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Focus Shifts to FOMC Minutes

Later this week, attention will turn to U.S. monetary policy. Investors are looking ahead to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the March policy meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, for further signals on the interest-rate outlook and its implications for precious metals.

Technical Overview: XAG/USD

As of writing, XAG/USD is trading close to flat around $72.50. The short-term technical stance is mildly negative, with spot prices capped beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), constraining any recovery attempts.

A pattern of consecutive lower daily closes from the mid-$90s reinforces a downside bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, indicating weak momentum. This points to ongoing selling pressure without an oversold reading, implying no clear sign of capitulation.

Technical Level	Zone	Implication
20-day EMA / Immediate resistance	Near $75.20	Daily close above would ease bearish tone and open room toward $80.00
First support	Around $70.00	Initial floor before deeper downside tests
Late swing low	Near $66.70	Break would expose next bearish extension
March 23 low	Around $61.00	Key downside target if selling intensifies

A sustained move above the 20-day EMA near $75.20 would be required to alleviate the current bearish configuration and allow a push toward the $80.00 region. On the downside, support is initially seen around $70.00. A break there would bring the late swing low near $66.70 into focus, with a failure at that level likely to expose the March 23 low around $61.00.

(This story was corrected at 06:30 GMT to say in the second paragraph that the deadline for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz is Tuesday 08:00 ET not 09:00 ET)