EUR/USD Rally Stalls as Traders Await Fed, ECB Signals

Key Moments

EUR/USD has stalled below the mid-1.1500s after rebounding from the 1.1415-1.1410 area, its weakest zone since August 2025.
The pair is trapped under the 200-hour SMA at 1.1547, with key Fibonacci resistance at 1.1539 and 1.1569 limiting further upside.
Euro has been the strongest major against the US Dollar this week, with EUR up 0.99% versus USD.

Range-Bound Trading Ahead of Central Bank Announcements

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating its recent recovery from the 1.1415-1.1410 region, which marked its lowest levels since August 2025. During the Asian session on Wednesday, the pair has been confined to a tight range, trading just below the mid-1.1500s and showing little net change on the day.

Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions as they wait for upcoming central bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve is due to release the outcome of its two-day meeting later on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank policy decision on Thursday. Investors are looking for guidance on the future trajectory of interest rates amid concerns that a war-related spike in energy costs could weigh on growth and re-ignite inflation pressures.

Technical Picture: Recovery Meets Overhead Supply

On the technical front, EUR/USD continues to trade below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average near 1.1547, which is acting as a cap on attempts to extend the rebound. The Relative Strength Index is hovering around 62, remaining in positive territory but still short of overbought readings. This setup points to modest bullish momentum without strong follow-through.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has dipped slightly under its signal line close to the zero level, signaling a fading bullish impulse consistent with the rejection from the longer-term moving average.

Key Resistance Zones

Immediate upside friction is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1666 to 1.1413 decline, which comes in at 1.1539. A clear push above that threshold would expose the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1569, followed by the 100-period SMA region around 1.1580.

A sustained break above 1.1569 would be needed to negate the prevailing bearish bias and redirect focus toward the 1.1612-1.1666 resistance band.

Support Levels and Downside Risk

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1509. Below that, the 23.6% retracement at 1.1473 aligns with previous intraday lows, reinforcing its role as a significant floor.

A decisive move beneath 1.1473 would open the door for a retest of the 1.1413 swing low. Conversely, maintaining prices above 1.1569 would suggest a shift in market sentiment away from the current bearish tone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Euro Performance Against Major Currencies This Week

The following table summarizes the percentage change of the Euro against major currencies this week. The Euro has shown particular strength versus the US Dollar over the period.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.99%	-0.89%	-0.40%	-0.20%	-1.72%	-1.19%	-0.62%
EUR	0.99%		0.12%	0.53%	0.79%	-0.70%	-0.20%	0.37%
GBP	0.89%	-0.12%		0.55%	0.67%	-0.83%	-0.32%	0.31%
JPY	0.40%	-0.53%	-0.55%		0.22%	-1.31%	-0.77%	-0.24%
CAD	0.20%	-0.79%	-0.67%	-0.22%		-1.56%	-0.98%	-0.42%
AUD	1.72%	0.70%	0.83%	1.31%	1.56%		0.52%	1.11%
NZD	1.19%	0.20%	0.32%	0.77%	0.98%	-0.52%		0.54%
CHF	0.62%	-0.37%	-0.31%	0.24%	0.42%	-1.11%	-0.54%

The heat map illustrates bilateral moves among major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, choosing Euro on the left and moving across to the US Dollar column shows the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).