Key Moments
- USD/CHF extends its advance for a fourth session, trading near 0.7870 and approaching its monthly high.
- Expectations have shifted to only one 25-bps Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, supporting US yields and the Dollar.
- Safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc remains muted amid concerns about potential SNB intervention in FX markets.
USD/CHF Extends Winning Streak
The USD/CHF pair continues its upward trajectory for a fourth consecutive trading day, edging into the 0.7870 area during the Asian session on Friday. This move brings the pair back toward its monthly high, with spot levels on course to log a second straight weekly gain. Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release for the next significant catalyst.
Inflation Fears Reinforce Hawkish Fed Expectations
The upcoming PCE data is expected to play a central role in shaping views on the Federal Reserve’s policy path, particularly against a backdrop of renewed inflation concerns. Expectations that a conflict-driven jump in Oil prices could reignite price pressures have led investors to anticipate a delay in Fed rate cuts. The commodity, often referred to as the black liquid, is holding close to the $100 psychological level as worries about further escalation in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amplify fears of supply disruptions.
Against this setting, market pricing has shifted to reflect just one 25-basis-point rate reduction by the Fed in 2026, seen as most likely occurring in December. This repricing continues to underpin elevated US Treasury yields, which in turn is attracting follow-through demand for the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of major peers, is moving toward the three-month high reached on Monday, providing an additional tailwind for USD/CHF.
Safe-Haven CHF Lags Despite Risk-Off Mood
Rising geopolitical tensions are weighing on overall risk appetite, as evidenced by a generally softer tone across equity markets. Typically, such risk-off sentiment would be supportive of classic safe-haven assets like the Swiss Franc (CHF). However, the currency has not seen a meaningful boost, as investors remain wary that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has stepped up its readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This dynamic is favoring USD/CHF buyers and is consistent with expectations for further near-term upside in the pair.
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies This Month
The following table shows this month’s percentage change in the US Dollar (USD) relative to major currencies. Over this period, the Dollar has been strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.60% | 1.19% | 2.14% | -0.26% | 0.67% | 2.65% | 1.67% | |
| EUR | -2.60% | -1.37% | -0.44% | -2.78% | -1.88% | 0.05% | -0.91% | |
| GBP | -1.19% | 1.37% | 0.98% | -1.43% | -0.51% | 1.44% | 0.47% | |
| JPY | -2.14% | 0.44% | -0.98% | -2.35% | -1.44% | 0.48% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 0.26% | 2.78% | 1.43% | 2.35% | 0.93% | 2.90% | 1.93% | |
| AUD | -0.67% | 1.88% | 0.51% | 1.44% | -0.93% | 1.96% | 0.98% | |
| NZD | -2.65% | -0.05% | -1.44% | -0.48% | -2.90% | -1.96% | -0.96% | |
| CHF | -1.67% | 0.91% | -0.47% | 0.47% | -1.93% | -0.98% | 0.96% |
The heat map above illustrates percentage changes between major currencies. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column, while the quote currency is taken from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar as the base from the left column and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen cell shows the percentage move in USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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