WTI Near Seven‑Month Highs Before US‑Iran Talks

Key Moments

WTI trades near $65.40 per barrel during European hours after two consecutive sessions of losses.
Traders focus on a third round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, which could reshape geopolitical risk in oil prices.
US crude inventories rose by 15.989 million barrels, the largest weekly build since February 2023, highlighting oversupply concerns.

WTI Holds Steady Near $65.40 After Recent Declines

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices stabilize around $65.40 per barrel after two straight days of declines during Thursday’s European session. The market pauses as participants assess persistent geopolitical risks tied to US-Iran tensions, which could disrupt crude supplies.

Geopolitical Focus: US-Iran Talks in Geneva

Investors are closely watching the third round of US-Iran nuclear discussions in Geneva on Thursday. Recent rhetoric from both sides has heightened fears of a wider regional conflict.

US President Donald Trump warned of potential military action if negotiations fail. Meanwhile, Iran indicated that US military bases across the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets. These statements have sharpened concerns about oil supply security.

Analysts See Talks as Key to Geopolitical Risk Premium

Reuters reports that ING Group analysts believe the outcome of the Geneva talks could strongly influence oil prices. They suggest that a constructive agreement might gradually remove a $10 per barrel geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in the market.

Oversupply Narrative Limits Upside for Crude

Despite the geopolitical backdrop, WTI upside remains constrained by ample supply. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stocks increased by 15.989 million barrels last week, after a prior draw of 9.014 million barrels. This surge is the largest weekly increase since February 2023.

Additional pressure comes from export activity. Saudi Arabia is approaching its highest crude export volumes in nearly three years. Simultaneously, Iran is accelerating tanker loadings, reinforcing perceptions of oversupply.

Indicator / Development	Latest Figure / Detail
WTI price level (European hours, Thursday)	Around $65.40 per barrel
US Crude Oil Stocks Change (latest week)	+15.989 million barrels
US Crude Oil Stocks Change (previous week)	-9.014 million barrels
Estimated geopolitical risk premium (ING)	$10 per barrel

US Treasury Move on Venezuelan Oil and Cuba

The US Department of the Treasury announced that companies can now apply for licenses to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba’s private sector. This move aims to ease severe fuel shortages on the island.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil, or West Texas Intermediate, is a type of crude traded internationally. It is “light” and “sweet” due to low gravity and sulfur content. WTI is high-quality oil sourced in the US and distributed via the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World.” It serves as a benchmark and its price is widely quoted in the media.

What factors drive WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand primarily drive WTI prices. Global growth can increase demand, while weak growth can reduce it. Political instability, wars, and sanctions also affect supply. OPEC decisions and the value of the US Dollar impact prices, as oil is mostly traded in USD. A weaker Dollar typically supports higher WTI prices.

How does inventory data impact WTI prices?

Weekly inventory reports from the API and EIA influence WTI prices. Lower inventories suggest increased demand, which can push prices up. Higher inventories indicate abundant supply, which can depress prices. API reports on Tuesdays, while EIA reports on Wednesdays. EIA data is considered more reliable.

How does OPEC influence WTI prices?

OPEC, a group of 12 oil-producing nations, sets production quotas twice yearly. Lower quotas can tighten supply and raise prices. Higher quotas can increase supply and lower prices. OPEC+ includes 10 additional non-OPEC members, including Russia.