Key Moments
- Citi placed KLA Corp on a 30-day positive Catalyst Watch ahead of its March 12 Investor Day in New York.
- The bank’s analyst projects KLA could achieve “$24Bn/$68 revenue/EPS in 2030 on $200Bn WFE,” with gross margins at 63% from 2026 levels.
- Citi reiterated its Buy rating and views KLA as having “the most upside among large cap semi caps of 35% on 2027 WFE, in our view.”
Focus Turns to KLA’s Investor Day Outlook
Investing.com — Citi has initiated a 30-day positive Catalyst Watch on KLA Corp ahead of the company’s Investor Day scheduled for 12 March in New York. The firm is positioning for potentially favorable developments in KLA’s long-term financial framework and possible product updates at the event.
Citi analyst Atif Malik noted that investors are likely to focus on KLA’s revised target operating model, the path of process-control intensity, and the scope for the company to extend its outperformance and capture additional market share.
Long-Term Financial Scenarios and WFE Assumptions
In a research note, Malik wrote that Citi expects KLA could reach “$24Bn/$68 revenue/EPS in 2030 on $200Bn WFE,” underpinned by increasing process-control intensity and “modestly improving gross margins of 63% from 2026 levels.”
The analyst pointed to top-down wafer-fab equipment (WFE) scenarios that, in Citi’s view, support a constructive long-term setup for the business.
| Metric | Scenario / Year | Value / Assumption |
|---|---|---|
| WFE (bull case) | 2026 | $140Bn |
| WFE (bull case) | 2027 | $180Bn |
| WFE (bull case) | 2030 | $200Bn |
| KLA revenue / EPS | 2030 scenario on $200Bn WFE | “$24Bn/$68 revenue/EPS in 2030 on $200Bn WFE” |
| Gross margin assumption | From 2026 levels | “modestly improving gross margins of 63% from 2026 levels” |
According to the note, Citi’s bull case indicates that “2026/2027 WFE could reach $140Bn/$180Bn, with $200Bn WFE likely achieved in 2030.”
Process Control Seen as Structural Growth Driver
Citi stressed that process-control intensity is becoming “structurally larger and more stable,” a trend the bank believes should work in KLA’s favor over the coming years.
The firm added that KLA “has the most upside among large cap semi caps of 35% on 2027 WFE, in our view.”
Stock Performance, Thesis, and Rating
Despite KLA’s share price lagging peers since its latest earnings release, amid worries related to a softer WFE backdrop and process-control dynamics, Citi argued that the main “investment thesis of elevated process control intensity and share gains is intact.”
The bank reiterated its Buy rating on the stock and stated that it anticipates KLA will raise its target model and may unveil “new advanced packaging products” at the upcoming Investor Day.
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