Silver Futures Stall as Geopolitics Shapes Trading

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: February 23, 2026

Key Moments

Silver futures opened the week with a gap higher and have reacted to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, but have shown a stronger overall response to financial developments.
CFTC Silver net speculative positions fell to 24.0K, the lowest reading since the start of the year, signaling a sharp reduction in leveraged exposure that could precipitate sudden selling.
Across monthly, weekly, and daily charts, silver futures are trading in tight ranges below key resistance levels, reflecting growing uncertainty around the outlook for U.S. interest-rate cuts.

Geopolitical Signals and Policy Expectations

Silver futures began the week with a gap-up opening, highlighting the market’s current sensitivity to shifts in sentiment. Throughout the year, futures prices have reacted to remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump, although price behavior has been driven primarily by financial and macroeconomic factors.

On Sunday, US President Donald Trump told advisers that an initial, more limited strike could be used to pressure Iran into agreeing to abandon its nuclear weapons capability.

Potential targets under consideration include facilities linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, nuclear infrastructure, and elements of its ballistic missile program.

At the same time, last week’s economic data pointed toward reduced expectations for additional interest-rate cuts this year. That backdrop, combined with the latest positioning figures, is shaping a cautious tone in the silver market.

Speculative Positioning Signals Exhaustion

On Saturday, the release of CFTC Silver net speculative positions suggested that the current phase of positioning exhaustion may continue into this week. The reported level of 24.0K marks the lowest reading since the start of the year.

This drop indicates a pronounced reduction in overleveraged speculative exposure. Such a contraction in positioning could heighten the risk of a sharp, sudden sell-off if market sentiment turns.

Metric	Latest Level	Comment
CFTC Silver net speculative positions	24.0K	Lowest since beginning of the year, signaling unwinding of leveraged positions

Monthly Chart: Wide Swings and Unclear Direction

On the monthly timeframe, silver futures opened the month at $84.300, moved up to a high of $92.015, and dropped to a low of $63.900, before trading at $86.860. This broad trading range reflects heightened uncertainty amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The current monthly candle introduces questions about the durability of the rebound from this month’s lows. The analysis notes that January saw the formation of a large exhaustive hammer after silver futures tested the record peak at $121.903, and the latest price action casts doubt on whether that reversal will hold.

Monthly Price Levels	Value
Monthly open	$84.300
Monthly high	$92.015
Monthly low	$63.900
Current trading level	$86.860
Record peak tested in January	$121.903

Weekly Chart: Resistance Caps Upside

On the weekly chart, silver futures opened this week with a gap higher at $84.977 and subsequently reached a weekly high of $87.187. Prices are currently below immediate resistance at $88.076, with the next notable resistance level identified at $92.016.

The analysis suggests that failure to break and hold above the immediate resistance could lead to renewed downside pressure. In such a scenario, the first important support is located at the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $80.054. A decisive break below that level could expose the next support at the 20-day EMA at $70.524.

Weekly Technical Levels	Value
Gap-up weekly open	$84.977
Weekly high	$87.187
Immediate resistance	$88.076
Next resistance	$92.016
Support – 9 EMA	$80.054
Support – 20 EMA	$70.524

Daily Chart: Narrow Range Highlights Uncertainty

On the daily chart, silver futures also started with a gap-up move but have since been confined to a tight trading band. This compressed range points to a rise in indecision among market participants.

The key daily resistance is identified at $80.076. According to the analysis, any attempt by prices to sustain above this level could draw in aggressive selling pressure from larger bearish market participants.