Crude Climbs to 6-Month Peak Amid Global Tensions

Key Moments

Prices Extend Rally on Heightened Conflict Risk

Oil prices continued their strong upward move in early European trading on Thursday, as market participants increasingly focused on the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran and the associated risks to supply.

Brent Crude, the international benchmark, added another 1.6% after a roughly 4% surge on Wednesday, pushing prices above $71.50 to the highest level in six months. In morning trade in Europe, Brent was up by 1.71% at $71.55 amid growing concerns that U.S.-Iran negotiations were stalling and as the United States positioned additional military assets near the Persian Gulf.

U.S. benchmark WTI Crude also moved sharply higher, trading at $66.37 per barrel, an increase of 1.83% on the day. That followed a 4% jump at Wednesday’s settlement.

RUDE OIL RISES ON DIPLOMATIC STALEMATE AND MILITARY TENSIONS$USO benchmarks climb as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks stall and Middle East posturing intensifies.

🔹 Brent Crude up 1.49% to $71.40, WTI up 1.49% to $66.02 amid heightened geopolitical risk
🔹 U.S. increases air and naval…

— CHItrader (@CHItraders) February 19, 2026

Geopolitical Tensions Center on Iran and the Persian Gulf

The advance in crude prices was driven largely by fears around potential supply disruptions linked to a possible U.S. campaign in Iran and broader risks in the Persian Gulf, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for regional oil shipments.

The U.S. Administration has warned Iran that it would be “very wise” to make a deal as diplomatic efforts and talks continue.

On Wednesday, Axios reported that the U.S. is moving closer to a war with Iran. A campaign in Iran would be nothing like the Venezuela blitz and could involve “a massive, weeks-long campaign,” Axios reported, citing sources.

U.S. President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision about a possible military intervention, sources with knowledge of the discussions among top U.S. national security officials told CBS News. But the President has discussed options, including a strike that could be ordered as soon as this coming Saturday, according to the sources.

“For oil markets, the concern is clearly what action would mean not only for Iranian oil supply, but also broader Persian Gulf oil flows, given the risk of disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a Thursday note.

Multiple Diplomatic Setbacks Support Bullish Tone

Beyond the U.S.-Iran impasse, traders also reacted to further geopolitical friction elsewhere. Talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva ended without any breakthrough, adding to the sense of heightened geopolitical risk and providing another tailwind to oil prices.

Futures Curve Signals Tighter-Than-Expected Market

Alongside the price rally, developments in the Brent futures structure pointed to a more constrained supply picture than many had anticipated. According to ING strategists, the configuration of the ICE Brent futures curve suggested that the oil market is “tighter than what many analysts have been expecting, including us.”

The strategists highlighted that many buyers remain unwilling to purchase significant volumes of sanctioned barrels, effectively tightening available supply and reinforcing the strength in prices.

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