Key Moments
- AUD/USD trades about 0.27% higher near 0.7065 during the European session on Thursday as the Australian Dollar outperforms.
- Australia’s unemployment rate remains at 4.1% versus expectations of 4.2%, while employers add 17.8K jobs, below both forecasts and the prior 68.5K.
- The 20-day EMA near 0.7002 and an RSI reading of 61 underline a constructive short-term technical outlook for AUD/USD.
Labor Market Data Lifts the Australian Dollar
The AUD/USD pair is trading higher during the European session on Thursday, up 0.27% and hovering around 0.7065. The move comes as the Australian Dollar (AUD) advances in response to the latest Australian labor market figures for January.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the seasonally adjusted Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%. Market expectations had pointed to a rise to 4.2%. Employers added 17.8K new workers, which fell short of the 20K consensus estimate and was notably below the previous increase of 68.5K.
RBA Expectations Turn More Hawkish
The steady unemployment rate and signs of resilience in the labor market have reinforced expectations for a more hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Citing a Reuters report, the article notes that traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.1% by the August policy meeting.
US Dollar Steady Ahead of US GDP Release
On the other side of the pair, the US Dollar (USD) is described as broadly stable as market participants await the release of the United States Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday. The US economy is projected to have grown at an annualized rate of 3%, compared with the previous reading of 4.4%.
Technical Outlook for AUD/USD
At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7060. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is rising and currently stands at 0.7002, reinforcing a positive short-term bias. Price action remains above this moving average, supporting the view that the pair is in a recovery phase.
A continued close above the February 12 high at 7.1473 is seen as a potential trigger for further gains toward the psychologically significant 0.7200 level. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA near 0.7002. As long as this zone holds, the pair is expected to maintain its upward trajectory.
Momentum indicators also back the bullish tone. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, which is in bullish territory but does not yet indicate overbought conditions.
The article notes that the technical analysis was prepared with the assistance of an AI tool.
Key Australian Labor Market Indicator
The report highlights the Unemployment Rate s.a. as a central economic indicator for Australia. The metric is defined as the number of unemployed individuals as a share of the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage.
| Indicator | Details |
|---|---|
| Name | Unemployment Rate s.a. |
| Last release | Thu Feb 19, 2026 00:30 |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Actual | 4.1% |
| Consensus | 4.2% |
| Previous | 4.1% |
| Source | Australian Bureau of Statistics |
Why the Unemployment Rate Matters for Markets
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides a broad picture of labor market trends, with the unemployment rate serving as a closely followed gauge. The release typically occurs about 15 days after the end of the reference month and offers insight into overall economic conditions, given its strong relationship with consumer spending and inflation.
Despite being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate plays an important role in shaping the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decisions and, by extension, movements in the Australian Dollar. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate is generally interpreted as supportive for the AUD, while a higher reading tends to be negative for the currency.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
