Grain Futures Stabilize as Traders Weigh Technical Signals

Key Moments

Corn: Testing Support Around Pivot Range

March corn futures moved under the 20-day moving average yesterday, driving prices into a closely watched pivot band between 425 and 427 1/4. That area has so far provided support, with early trade showing a firmer tone as the market attempts to reclaim the 20-day level.

Overall activity remains subdued, and the current low-volatility environment could persist into March options expiration at the end of the week. Based on open interest positioning, the 430 level may act as a price magnet in the near term.

Soybeans: Rally Offers Producers a New Chance to Act

March soybean futures are extending their recent advance, setting fresh highs for the current move and trading at the strongest levels since December 2. The market is presenting another opportunity to those producers who had previously considered selling into strength earlier in December but did not execute.

The commentary emphasizes that producers are effectively always long the market. The outlook has been relatively constructive for the new-crop November contract, which is now trading less than a dime below its contract high. However, participants are urged to clearly distinguish whether they are operating as hedgers or speculators. While further upside is seen as possible, the uncertainty of future price action suggests that producers should consider taking protective measures.

Wheat: Pullback Tests Breakout Area

March Chicago wheat futures came under heavy pressure yesterday, giving back the entire breakout from last Thursday. That prior breakout zone has now served as a platform for early strength, as the contract attempts to rebound.

The 20-day moving average continues to push above the 100-day moving average, providing a constructive technical backdrop. If yesterday’s low remains intact, it would establish a higher low on the chart. The 200-day moving average, currently at 551, has acted as strong resistance. A decisive move above that level could open additional upside potential.

With March futures approaching first notice day, market participants are advised to consider shifting exposure into later-dated contracts such as May or July to maintain time flexibility.