Key Moments
- Brent and WTI futures inched higher in early Thursday trading as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran fueled supply concerns.
- Recent gains came even as U.S. crude inventories surged by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels, far above expectations for a 793,000-barrel increase.
- Analysts noted that U.S.-Iran risks, tighter Russian oil sanctions and expectations of lower exports are keeping the price bias tilted to the upside.
Early Session Price Action
Oil benchmarks moved modestly higher on Thursday morning in Asia as market participants focused on the potential for supply disruptions stemming from rising friction between the United States and Iran, including possible threats to Tehran or key shipping lanes.
| Contract | Price | Move | Percentage Change | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | $69.67 per barrel | +$0.27 | +0.39% | 0350 GMT |
| U.S. WTI crude | $64.92 per barrel | +$0.29 | +0.45% | 0350 GMT |
Both benchmarks extended gains from the previous session, when Brent crude futures advanced 0.87% and U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose more than 1.05%. Those earlier moves came as worries about the U.S.-Iran situation outweighed the impact of a sizeable rise in U.S. crude stockpiles.
Geopolitical Backdrop and Market Sentiment
Following talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said they had not reached a “definitive” agreement on next steps regarding Iran, while emphasizing that engagement with Tehran would go on.
On Tuesday, Trump stated he was weighing the option of deploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East if no agreement is achieved with Iran, even as Washington and Tehran were preparing to resume discussions.
U.S. and Iranian officials conducted indirect talks in Oman last week. The timing and location for the next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations have not yet been disclosed.
Commenting on the technical outlook for prices, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said a more durable move above the $65–$66 band in WTI would likely need a further deterioration in Middle East tensions, while any easing of the situation could swiftly prompt profit-taking that pulls prices back toward the $60-$61 area.
Economic Data and Demand Expectations
Fresh labor market data from the United States pointed to underlying economic strength. The Labor Department reported that U.S. job creation unexpectedly picked up in January, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, highlighting resilience in the economy.
“The resilient U.S. economy is also supporting oil demand expectations,” said Mingyu Gao, chief researcher for energy and chemicals at China Futures.
Inventory Build Tempers Gains
Further upside in crude was restrained by a sharp increase in U.S. stockpiles. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude inventories climbed by 8.5 million barrels last week to 428.8 million barrels. That build far surpassed the 793,000-barrel increase anticipated in a Reuters poll.
| Indicator | Latest Level | Change | Market Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. crude inventories | 428.8 million barrels | +8.5 million barrels | +793,000 barrels |
However, Gao noted that global oil inventory increases since the start of the year have largely undershot forecasts, and that net long positioning in overseas crude futures and options has not yet reached overweight territory.
Outlook for Oil Prices
Against this backdrop, Gao said oil prices are expected to retain an upward tilt, underpinned by the U.S.-Iran dynamic, tighter sanctions on Russian oil and expectations for lower export volumes.
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