China’s LNG Purchases May Rebound Despite Price Pressure

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Rebound in Chinese LNG Demand After Last Year’s Decline

China’s LNG imports are projected to recover this year. Analysts cited by Reuters forecast a 3%-10% increase from 2025 levels. Softer prices, driven by a new wave of LNG supply, are seen as a key factor supporting the rebound.

Energy intelligence analysts told Reuters that China’s LNG purchases could reach 70.5-75.5 million metric tons this year. This would mark a modest recovery and indicate that the downturn in LNG imports is easing.

Impact of Strong Domestic Output and Mild Winter in 2025

China, the world’s top LNG importer, saw a 10% decline in LNG imports last year. Domestic natural gas production increased, which reduced reliance on imported LNG.

Earlier in 2025, domestic gas output hit a record high. As a result, LNG imports for the first seven months fell 19% year-on-year, reaching their lowest level in six years. A mild winter, slower industrial activity, and higher pipeline gas inflows also reduced LNG import needs during this period.

Outlook for 2026 LNG Buying and Price Dynamics

Imports are expected to rebound this year, but analysts note that weaker areas of China’s economy may keep demand below 2024 levels. Even so, recent months show a pickup in LNG arrivals, suggesting demand is recovering.

Lower LNG prices from new U.S. and Qatari supply could trigger additional spot purchases. This supply wave is likely to push down Asian spot LNG prices and Europe’s Dutch TTF benchmark. Therefore, China can secure more attractively priced cargoes.

Domestic and Pipeline Gas Still Take Priority

Despite favorable prices, China is likely to prioritize domestic and pipeline gas before expanding LNG purchases. Analysts say LNG remains a supplemental fuel due to its higher cost.

“Even if prices fall in 2026, LNG can’t compete with domestic or imported pipeline gas, which costs less,” said Rystad Energy analyst Xiong Wei. “It will remain a backup supply.”