NZD/USD Hovers 0.6000 Amid Technical Shift Signals

Key Moments

NZD/USD trades around 0.5990, staying below the lower boundary of an ascending channel.
The nine-day EMA at 0.5994 sits just above the spot price and provides immediate resistance.
Primary support lies at the 50-day EMA of 0.5853. A break below could push the pair toward 0.5580.

Pair Holds Near 0.6000 Amid Channel Breakdown Risk

NZD/USD faces pressure for a second straight session, hovering near 0.5990 during early European trading on Thursday. Daily chart patterns suggest a possible bearish turn because the pair trades slightly below the lower boundary of its ascending channel.

However, the broader structure still shows a constructive bias. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains above the 50-day EMA. Moreover, the pair continues to trade above the medium-term trend line, keeping the overall bullish alignment intact for now.

Momentum Indicators and Moving Averages

Moving averages continue to lean upward, indicating that a daily close above the nine-day EMA could open the door for renewed gains. Currently, the nine-day EMA sits at 0.5994 and acts as the nearest technical hurdle.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, showing a neutral-bullish tone. It has eased from previous highs, signaling consolidation rather than a trend reversal. As long as the RSI holds above 50, pullbacks should remain limited. Conversely, a drop toward the midline would suggest fading upside momentum.

Technical Indicator	Level	Implication
Nine-day EMA	0.5994	Immediate resistance; a close above may extend upside
50-day EMA	0.5853	Primary support; a break would raise downside risk
14-day RSI	60	Neutral-bullish; signals momentum consolidation
16-month high	0.6121	Upside target if channel recovery continues
10-month low	0.5580	Downside target if key support fails

Upside Scenario: Reclaiming the Channel

The first key resistance is the nine-day EMA at 0.5994. If the pair rebounds decisively above this average, it could re-enter the ascending channel. In that case, NZD/USD may revisit the 16-month peak at 0.6121, reached in July 2025.

If buyers maintain momentum beyond that high, the price could then move toward the upper band of the ascending channel near 0.6270.

Downside Risks: Key EMAs and Multi-Month Lows

On the downside, the 50-day EMA at 0.5853 serves as the main medium-term support. A break below this level would likely accelerate selling pressure and expose lower levels.

Should that support fail, NZD/USD could test the region around the 10-month low at 0.5580, which represents a critical area for bears.

Chart Reference

NZD/USD: Daily Chart

(This technical analysis was prepared with the assistance of an AI tool.)

New Zealand Dollar: Background and Drivers

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also called the Kiwi, is a widely traded currency. Investors mainly value it based on New Zealand’s economic performance and central bank monetary policy. Several key factors directly influence NZD price action.

Economic Links and Commodity Exposure

China’s economy plays an important role, as it is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Negative developments in China can reduce New Zealand exports, which may weaken the economy and NZD.

Dairy prices also significantly influence the currency. Since dairy constitutes New Zealand’s main export, higher prices tend to support export earnings, benefiting both the economy and the NZD.

Role of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) targets 1–3% inflation over the medium term, aiming for the 2% midpoint. To achieve this, the RBNZ adjusts policy interest rates.

If inflation rises too high, the central bank raises rates to cool the economy. Higher rates increase bond yields, making New Zealand assets more attractive to investors and supporting NZD. Conversely, lower rates tend to weaken the currency.

The interest rate difference between New Zealand and the US Federal Reserve is also a key driver for NZD/USD.

Impact of Domestic Data and Global Risk Sentiment

Domestic macroeconomic releases signal the economy’s health and affect NZD. Strong growth, low unemployment, and high confidence typically support the currency, especially if inflation rises and prompts tighter RBNZ policy. Weak data, on the other hand, can push NZD lower.

Global risk sentiment also matters. The NZD generally performs well during risk-on periods, when investors favor higher-risk assets like commodity currencies. During financial stress or uncertainty, investors often shift toward safer assets, reducing NZD exposure.