Dollar–Yen Climb Revives Intervention Concerns

Key Moments

USDJPY has been advancing toward the 159.00 level, where earlier verbal intervention and “rate check” headlines sparked a sharp prior selloff.
Stronger U.S. data and firm PMIs have supported a rebound in the U.S. Dollar, with upcoming NFP and CPI releases seen as key confirmation points for the bullish trend.
The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged while slightly lifting growth and inflation forecasts, and market attention remains on potential April price developments for a possible rate hike.

Fundamental Overview

U.S. Dollar: Rebound Underpinned by Firm Data

The U.S. Dollar has been staging a recovery after the pronounced decline seen during the final weeks of January. The currency remains underpinned by improving U.S. economic indicators and resilient PMI readings, which are pointing to the possibility of stronger activity ahead.

If incoming figures continue to surprise on the upside, market participants may be forced to scale back expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve path, which in turn would provide additional support for the greenback.

The coming week is described as particularly important. The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the U.S. CPI release on Friday. While the broader trend in the dollar is increasingly tilted to the upside, many traders are still looking for confirmation from this data before committing more decisively to bullish positions.

Japanese Yen: Policy Steady, Intervention Talk Fades

On the Japanese side, there have been no major changes in the policy backdrop. At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged as anticipated. The central bank modestly raised its growth and inflation projections, reflecting the impact of expansionary fiscal measures.

Governor Ueda did not introduce any fresh forward guidance, reiterating instead that the Bank of Japan will continue to lift rates if the economic outlook unfolds as expected. He also noted that April price developments will be an important consideration when evaluating the case for a rate increase. This implies that April is seen as a potential window for another hike, contingent on the data.

The Japanese Yen previously firmed on the back of discussions around “rate checks” and the heightened risk of intervention. Those concerns have since receded, and with the U.S. Dollar strengthening alongside better U.S. data and anticipation of Takaichi’s expected victory in the lower house elections this weekend, traders have been rebuilding short positions in JPY.

USDJPY Technical Overview – Multi-Timeframe View

Timeframe	Key Levels / Structures	Buyer Focus	Seller Focus
Daily	159.00 resistance; major trendline support	Looking for a break above 159.00 to target new cycle highs	Eyeing fresh shorts near 159.00 with risk above prior highs
4-hour	Break above last week’s gap; continuation move toward 159.00	Adding to bullish exposure as price extends toward 159.00	Limited new information; waiting for clearer signals
1-hour	Minor upward trendline; 155.50 support; daily range constraints	Using the rising trendline as a reference for defined-risk longs	Watching for a downside break of the trendline aiming toward 155.50

USDJPY Daily Chart: Approaching Prior Intervention Zone

On the daily timeframe, USDJPY has been pushing higher toward the 159.00 area. This level previously coincided with intense verbal intervention and reports of “rate checks,” which ultimately preceded a sharp, rapid decline in the pair.

Should price revisit this zone, many sellers are expected to re-engage, taking positions with clearly defined risk just above the previous highs and targeting a move back toward the major trendline. By contrast, buyers are likely to seek a decisive break through 159.00 as a signal to expand bullish positions and pursue fresh cycle highs.

USDJPY 4-Hour Chart: Gap Filled and Momentum Extended

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has already moved above last week’s gap and continued to grind higher, as buyers have increased their bullish exposure while steering the market closer to the 159.00 threshold. Beyond confirming the strength of the current move, this timeframe offers limited additional insight, prompting a closer look at intraday dynamics.

USDJPY 1-Hour Chart: Short-Term Trendline Guides Intraday Flows

The 1-hour chart shows a minor ascending trendline that has been underpinning the current bullish momentum. Buyers are likely to continue using this line as a reference point, maintaining long positions with risk defined beneath it while attempting to drive USDJPY toward new highs.

Sellers, in turn, are watching for a clean break below this trendline to initiate or add to short positions, with an eye on a potential pullback toward the 155.50 support zone. The red lines on this chart delineate today’s average daily range, framing near-term volatility.

Upcoming Data and Political Events

The immediate U.S. data docket includes Jobless Claims and Job Openings figures today, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report tomorrow to close out the week.

Over the weekend, Japanese elections are in focus, with the LDP widely expected to secure victory. Market participants are monitoring this outcome alongside the evolving rate and intervention narrative as USDJPY trades closer to levels that previously provoked official concern.