Key Moments
- Front-month Dutch TTF futures are set for a 38% monthly rise, the strongest since summer 2023.
- Benchmark TTF prices hit $46.59 (39.085 euros) per MWh Friday morning in Amsterdam, up from $34.60 (29 euros) at January’s start.
- Speculative positioning flipped from a net short of 55.1 TWh to a net long of 57.7 TWh in the week to January 20, signaling a sharp sentiment shift.
Winter Demand Pushes Prices Higher
Europe’s natural gas market surged on Friday. Persistent cold spells in January raised heating and power demand. At the same time, faster withdrawals from storage fueled a strong rally across the region.
The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the key European benchmark, is set for a 38% monthly gain. This marks the largest one-month increase since summer 2023, when supply concerns drove a sharp spike.
Spot Prices Jump
During Friday morning trading in Amsterdam, the TTF contract rose 1.3% to $46.59 (39.085 euros) per MWh. At the start of January, it traded at $34.60 (29 euros), showing the intensity of the rally.
| Contract / Metric | Price / Position | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Front-month Dutch TTF price | $34.60 (29 euros) per MWh | Beginning of January |
| Front-month Dutch TTF price | $46.59 (39.085 euros) per MWh | Friday morning in Amsterdam |
| Monthly performance | 38% gain | On track as of Friday |
| Speculative positioning | Net short 55.1 TWh → net long 57.7 TWh | Week to January 20 |
Speculators Turn Bullish
Colder-than-normal weather in January, including a severe U.S. freeze that limited LNG feedgas deliveries, triggered a sharp shift in trader positions toward European gas.
According to Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, speculative players reversed from a net short of 55.1 TWh to a net long of 57.7 TWh in the week to January 20. Patterson detailed this move in a note last week.
Storage Drawdowns Support Rally
Prices were also lifted by fast withdrawals from European storage sites. Below-average winter temperatures drove the fastest drawdowns in five years. Rising heating demand tightened the regional balance and pushed prices higher.
Global Weather Adds Pressure
The rally is not limited to Europe. Natural gas prices worldwide rose as Arctic conditions gripped the northern hemisphere, including the U.S. and Asia. This broader weather-driven demand strengthened European benchmarks further.
Geopolitics Raises Risk Premium
Geopolitical tensions provided an additional boost. Heightened rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran added risk premiums to European gas prices. On Thursday alone, the TTF benchmark jumped 4%.
ING commodities strategists noted: “Escalation between the U.S. and Iran puts LNG supply at risk. Qatar, the second-largest exporter, ships volumes through the Strait of Hormuz.” They added that Qatar accounted for roughly 19% of global LNG exports in 2025.
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