Forex Market: EUR/USD trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3812-1.3881 and closed at 1.3869.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Confidence among investors in the Euro zone probably improved during the current month, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 15.0. Last month the indicator rose to 14.1, the strongest since April 2011.

The index is based on results from the SENTIX survey, one of the most prominent surveys, reflecting investors’ opinion in Germany. It encompasses 2 400 respondents, with 510 of them being institutional investors. Respondents present their expectations regarding ten different markets for a period of one and six months. The value of the index is evaluated, as the number of investors projecting a surge in a given market is subtracted from the number of those projecting a drop and the resulting difference is divided by the total number of respondents.

Higher than expected readings would be supportive for the 18-nation common currency. The official result is due at 8:30 GMT.

United States

Activity in United States’ sector of services probably rose to a six-month high in April, with the corresponding non-manufacturing PMI coming in at a reading of 54.1, according to expectations, from 53.1 in March. This is a compound index, based on the values of four equally-weighted components, that comprise it. These sub-indexes reflect seasonally adjusted new orders, seasonally adjusted employment, seasonally adjusted business activity and shipments. Readings above the key level of 50.0 are indicative of expanding activity. In case market expectations are exceeded, US dollar would be boosted.

The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release official data at 14:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3896, it will probably continue up to test 1.3923. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3965.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3827, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3785. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3758.