Deutsche Bank Sees Copper Holding High-Price Level

Key Moments

Incentive Price Environment Underpinned by Supply and Demand

Deutsche Bank Research expects copper to remain in an incentive price regime. This outlook is based on limited mine supply and steady demand linked to electrification. In addition, the bank notes that new mine projects require high capital expenditure. That makes supply growth slower than demand growth.

Therefore, prices are likely to stay elevated. At the same time, the market may stay sensitive to any disruptions in production. In short, tight supply and strong demand are expected to keep the market in a high-price band.

Price Outlook and Quarterly Peak Projection

In its latest outlook, Deutsche Bank forecasts a clear price cycle for 2026. Prices are expected to rise into Q2 and then ease later in the year. The bank forecasts a peak near $13,000 per ton in Q2.

Deutsche Bank states that prices could fall later in the year if production rises at several large mines. Still, the bank expects the overall trend to remain supported by tight supply and long-term demand.

Policy Risk: Potential US Tariffs and Volatility

Deutsche Bank also highlights policy risk as a key uncertainty. Specifically, the bank points to the possibility of US tariffs on refined copper. Such a move could shift global flows and increase price volatility.

According to the report, tariffs could keep flows heading to the US in the first half. Yet, policy uncertainty could also trigger sudden price swings later in the year. In this context, traders may face more volatility even if supply and demand remain balanced.

Overall, Deutsche Bank concludes that an incentive price regime is likely to persist. This is supported by tight mine supply, electrification demand, and high capex needs for new projects.