Key Moments
- Brent March futures dipped 0.2% to $64.97 per barrel, and WTI fell 0.3% to $60.91 at 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT).
- Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military moves toward the Middle East, kept risk premiums high.
- OPEC+ is expected to keep production unchanged for March, after raising targets earlier in 2025.
Early Session Price Action
Oil prices edged lower on Monday. Traders gave back a small part of last week’s gains as they reassessed supply risks and geopolitical tensions. In addition, they stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later this week.
| Contract | Move | Price | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent futures (March) | -0.2% | $64.97 per barrel | 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT) |
| WTI crude futures | -0.3% | $60.91 per barrel | 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT) |
Both benchmarks rose more than 2% on Friday, driven by higher geopolitical risk premiums.
Geopolitical Risk Premium in Focus
Energy markets stayed fragile as investors watched rising geopolitical risks. Markets were on alert after the U.S. signaled stronger military positioning.
President Donald Trump said a U.S. naval “armada,” including an aircraft carrier group, was heading toward the Middle East. This raised fears that a conflict with Iran could disrupt crude shipments from major producers.
Oil markets were also influenced by recent tensions over Greenland. This uncertainty has unsettled broader financial markets.
Supply Developments and Kazakhstan Exports
Some price pressure eased as Kazakhstan restored a key export route. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said operations at its Black Sea terminal resumed normal service. As a result, loadings returned to full levels.
Macroeconomic Backdrop and Fed Outlook
Despite the geopolitical risk, investors stayed wary of the supply-demand balance. Many traders fear a supply glut later in the year if production rises faster than demand.
Attention is shifting to the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged. Traders will watch for clues about future rate cuts. Rate changes can influence oil demand through economic growth and the dollar’s strength.
OPEC+ Strategy and Upcoming Meeting
Supply policy from OPEC+ remains a key focus. Reuters reports that OPEC+ is expected to keep its pause on output increases for March.
This comes after oil prices rose about 8% so far this month. Prices climbed above $66 a barrel despite concerns about a possible supply glut.
| OPEC+ Policy Highlights | Details |
|---|---|
| Planned output change (Apr-Dec 2025) | Increase targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day |
| Share of world demand | Nearly 3% of global demand |
| Status for Jan-Mar | Production hikes paused amid weak demand |
Earlier, OPEC+ raised its output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day for April to December 2025. It also paused monthly increases for January through March due to weak demand forecasts.
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