Energy Markets Set for Breakout as Crude Holds $60

Key Moments

Market Overview

WTI crude oil has moved back toward $60 per barrel, recouping part of the previous session’s losses as traders balance potential supply disruptions with steady global consumption. Price action across the energy complex remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, which are contributing to a risk premium in both oil and natural gas without triggering disorderly buying.

Major producers are downplaying the risk of a near-term oversupply, emphasizing last year’s record global oil usage and additional demand growth projected for 2026, particularly from emerging markets and ongoing strength in US consumption.

This constructive demand outlook stands in contrast to forecasts indicating that supply is still likely to surpass demand in 2025. A softer US dollar has provided some near-term support for crude prices, but worries about increasing output are limiting the upside.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading around $4.81, easing after a powerful advance from the $3.00-$3.20 base. On the 2-hour chart, price action shows a strong impulsive move that broke decisively above the descending trendline and the 200-EMA, followed by a series of corrective candles with long upper shadows that point to profit-taking.

The rally stalled close to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $4.89 before retreating toward the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $4.49, which has emerged as the first notable support level. The prior range high near $4.17 has turned into a deeper demand zone.

Momentum has moderated, with RSI pulling back from overbought territory toward the 55-60 band, indicating a consolidation phase rather than a complete breakdown in the uptrend.

Trade idea: Buy on a hold above $4.48, target $5.05, stop below $4.15.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast (USOIL)

WTI crude oil is trading close to $59.70, consolidating within a rising channel on the 2-hour timeframe. Price continues to track an ascending trendline drawn from the $55.75 low, while recent candles exhibit small real bodies and mixed wicks, signaling indecision rather than forceful selling pressure.

The 50-EMA is flattening near $59.80, and the 200-EMA is advancing toward $59.00, together forming a layered support structure. A Fibonacci retracement drawn from $55.75 to $62.35 identifies $59.05 (50%) and $58.27 (61.8%) as important downside levels.

Short-term price action is compressing into a triangle bounded by support near $59.00 and resistance at $60.66. RSI is hovering around 50, reflecting neutral momentum as the market waits for a clearer catalyst.

Trade idea: Buy above $60.00, target $60.65, stop below $59.00.

Brent Crude Price Forecast (UKOIL)

Brent crude is trading near $64.40, consolidating above a rising trendline that originates from the $59.82 low. On the 2-hour chart, candlestick patterns show long wicks and mixed bodies, underscoring two-way interest rather than a strong directional bias.

Price remains contained within a modest ascending channel, with horizontal resistance in the $65.35-$66.00 region. To the downside, initial support is clustered around $64.10, followed by $63.30, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $59.82-$66.80 move.

The 50-EMA is flattening above the rising 200-EMA, preserving a constructive technical backdrop. RSI is near 50, indicating neutral momentum as prices continue to coil within the existing range.

Trade idea: Buy on a hold above $64.10, target $65.35, stop below $63.30.