Key Moments
- Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price target to $US5400 per ounce from $US4900.
- The bank highlighted growing private sector diversification into gold as a primary driver of the new forecast.
- Gold recently traded around $US4783 per ounce after hitting a record high of $US4888 per ounce on Wednesday.
Forecast Upgrade and Rationale
Goldman Sachs has lifted its projection for gold, now expecting the metal to reach $US5400 per ounce by the end of this year, up from a prior forecast of $US4900 per ounce. The firm pointed to a notable shift in investor behavior, emphasizing that private sector diversification into gold has become a significant force behind its more optimistic outlook.
The investment bank described this diversification trend as a key element reshaping gold market dynamics, with private investors increasingly turning to the metal as part of their broader portfolio strategies.
Role of Private Sector Investors
Goldman Sachs strategist Daan Struyven explained that private sector participants are allocating capital to gold as a hedge against global policy risks. In a note to clients, Struyven indicated that these diversification-focused investors are not expected to exit their positions in 2026, suggesting a durable source of demand.
This anticipated persistence of private sector holdings is seen as an important support for prices, reinforcing the bank’s expectation of continued strength in the gold market.
Shift in Drivers of the Gold Rally
The latest upswing in gold prices has gained momentum since 2025. Earlier phases of the rally in 2023 and 2024 were driven primarily by central bank purchases. More recently, however, the advance has been attributed to intensified competition between central banks and private sector investors for a finite supply of bullion.
🚨 Goldman Sachs lifts 2026 gold target to $5,400
Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold forecast by >10%, citing:
• strong central bank buying
• persistent private investor demand as a macro hedge
• potential upside from Fed rate cuts in 2026Spot gold just printed new ATHs… pic.twitter.com/nq15DXzJxq
— Carsten Stork (@StratcomCapital) January 22, 2026
Recent Price Action
Gold’s recent performance has underscored this tightening backdrop. On Thursday, the metal traded at roughly $US4783 per ounce, following a record high of $US4888 per ounce on Wednesday.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Previous Goldman Sachs year-end gold forecast | $US4900 per ounce |
| Revised Goldman Sachs year-end gold forecast | $US5400 per ounce |
| Gold price on Wednesday (record high) | $US4888 per ounce |
| Gold price on Thursday | $US4783 per ounce |
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