Key Moments
- March WTI crude futures traded at $59.84 at 12:16 GMT, up $0.50 or 0.84% after rebounding from key technical support.
- Prices are consolidating between the 50-day moving average at $58.27 and the 200-day moving average at $60.49, defining a clear near-term range.
- Stronger Chinese GDP data and an IMF growth upgrade helped counter concerns over newly proposed U.S. tariffs on Europe.
Technical Rebound from Short-Term Support
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March delivery edged higher on Tuesday as buyers returned after prices tested and defended a key support level.
Specifically, futures dipped to a short-term 50% retracement level at $58.52. This area sat just above the 50-day moving average at $58.27, which continues to guide the short-term trend.
Once that support held, buyers stepped in and pushed prices above the short-term pivot at $58.93. As a result, that level now acts as fresh chart support.
At 12:16 GMT, March WTI crude oil futures traded at $59.84, up $0.50 or 0.84%.
Key Price Levels and Resistance Zone
On the upside, the first resistance level sits near $59.80, which marks another 50% retracement. A sustained move above this zone could attract additional momentum buying.
Beyond that, traders are watching the 200-day moving average at $60.49, followed by the 61.8% retracement level at $60.96. A break above $60.96 would shift focus toward the $62.20 swing high.
| Level | Price | Technical Significance |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | $58.27 | Short-term trend support |
| Short-term 50% level | $58.52 | Support defended by buyers |
| Short-term pivot | $58.93 | Newly reclaimed support |
| Upside 50% target | $59.80 | Initial resistance |
| 200-day moving average | $60.49 | Major resistance level |
| 61.8% retracement | $60.96 | Key barrier before $62.20 |
Tariff Threats and Chinese Data Create Crosscurrents
Overnight developments sent mixed signals, yet overall they helped steady crude prices. Traders continue to weigh new U.S. tariff threats against improving global growth indicators.
In particular, markets are monitoring President Trump’s proposal to impose 10% tariffs from February 1 on imports from several European nations. Consequently, the risk of a broader trade dispute has added uncertainty to demand expectations.
However, stronger-than-expected economic data from China offset some of that pressure. As a result, crude prices found support as demand optimism improved.
Additionally, the International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast, while higher diesel prices added to the market’s underlying bid.
Taken together, current price action reflects a balance between tariff-driven risks and support from stronger growth signals.
China’s GDP Boost Lifts Demand Outlook
Meanwhile, positive data from China continued to underpin sentiment. Better-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures reinforced optimism around oil demand from the world’s largest crude importer.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore summed it up, saying: “The resilience in the world’s top oil importer provided a lift to demand sentiment.”
Supply Overhang and Iran Risk Shape the Broader Outlook
Looking further ahead, the outlook remains cautious. A persistent global supply surplus continues to cap rallies, especially near the 200-day moving average at $60.49.
At the same time, tensions in Iran have maintained a modest war premium. This risk factor, combined with support at the 50-day moving average, continues to establish a near-term floor.
As long as WTI trades between $58.27 and $60.49, range-bound conditions are likely to persist. Escalation in Iran could trigger an upside breakout, while the supply glut remains the primary headwind.
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