Natural Gas Jumps on Winter Storm Heating Fear

Key Moments

Weather Shock Drives Aggressive Buying in Gas Futures

Natural gas futures surged 25% to $3.88 per MMBtu by 8:19 a.m. Eastern on Monday. The jump came after forecasts showed a sharp winter pattern that could boost heating demand across much of the U.S. Traders reacted quickly as sentiment was already fragile.

Pete Gallagher, an energy trader at Mizuho, said the move looked “parabolic.” He linked the surge to a Bomb Cyclone sweeping across the country. These storms often bring rapid temperature drops, heavy snow, and strong winds. As a result, utilities and consumers rush to secure supplies, which can trigger sudden price moves.

Market Sensitivity to Forecasts and Volatility Risks

The jump shows how sensitive natural gas remains to weather forecasts. Even small changes in outlooks can trigger big price swings, especially in winter. Traders are now pricing in the risk that cold conditions may last longer than expected. This could tighten supply-demand balances and keep volatility high.

Reversal From Earlier Downtrend

Monday’s surge marked a clear reversal from the recent downtrend. Natural gas had fallen from above $5.20 per MMBtu in early December. That period saw a cold polar vortex and strong export demand. At that time, gas had not traded above $5 since 2022.