Energy Rally Pauses as Oil Cools, Gas Surges

Key Moments

Market Overview

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil slipped to $59.1 per barrel on Monday, interrupting a run of four consecutive weekly advances. The decline followed signs of reduced geopolitical risk in Iran, after President Donald Trump indicated a pause in military action in response to Tehran’s pledge to halt executions of protesters. Nonetheless, Trump cautioned that “strong measures” could return if executions resume, leaving a modest geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.

Alongside the geopolitical backdrop, traders are reassessing trade-related risks. Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, with the levy slated to rise to 25% by June unless an agreement is reached concerning Greenland. While global crude supply remains sufficient, localized disruptions tied to Kazakhstan’s Black Sea region continue to provide some support and limit downside pressure.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas futures are trading near $3.449, with price action reflecting a strong rebound after piercing a descending trendline. On the 2-hour chart, the contract has climbed 11.15%, with the rally carrying prices decisively above the $3.357 resistance level and toward a test of the $3.500 area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving higher but has not yet reached overbought levels, indicating that the current upswing may still have room to extend. Moving averages have begun to turn upward, reinforcing the improving bullish tone.

If prices can remain above $3.500, the next upside objectives are seen at $3.543 and $3.675. On the downside, a failure to sustain current levels could trigger a pullback toward support at $3.357, with a deeper decline potentially targeting the $3.213 zone.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading around $59.06 with a mildly negative bias, influenced primarily by the easing in Iran-related geopolitical risk and renewed worries over trade frictions. On the 2-hour chart, prices are fluctuating near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $59.05. Overhead, resistance stands at $59.83 and $61.04, while the RSI is moving lower, signaling a loss of bullish momentum.

A rising trendline underpins the market near $58.27, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A decisive move below this support band could open the door to additional downside toward $55.75. Even so, supply interruptions connected to Kazakhstan and the residual geopolitical risk premium may cushion the decline.

On the upside, a clear breakout above $59.83 would be a constructive signal for bulls and could set the stage for a move toward $62.35.

Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is trading close to $63.84 and is exhibiting consolidation behavior following a modest pullback. On the 2-hour chart, price action is contained between the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $63.31 and resistance at $64.13. The RSI is described as neutral, pointing to neither overbought nor oversold conditions and indicating balanced short-term momentum.

Support for Brent is reinforced by a rising trendline near $62.49, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained break above $64.13, particularly with confirmation from trading volumes, could open a path toward the $66.80 region. Conversely, failure to remain above $63.31 could invite a move back to test $62.49, with the possibility of an extension down to $61.00.